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Trump Dominates Ohio Republicans!!!

By islander
May 5, 2022 4:41 am
Category: Politics

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Or does he? This article tends to put Trump backed Vance’s win in the proper perspective and what it means for Democrats.

“Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance in the Ohio Republican primary may have moved the needle enough to allow Vance to win in a five-person race. Some in the mainstream media reported this development as “stunning,” “seismic,” and a “confirmation of Trump’s domination of the GOP.” See, e.g., Newsweek, Donald Trump’s Stunning Ohio Victories Show’ Era Has Ended’ for Republicans. Without disputing Trump’s probable influence on the outcome, we should maintain perspective about what happened—and what did not happen—in the Ohio Republican primary. Before looking at the numbers, let’s skip to the end: Democrats can win in Ohio, notwithstanding J.D. Vance’s victory. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise!
The starting point is to recognize that turnout in the Ohio primary was pathetic, as is true in almost all primaries. But turnout was abysmal in Ohio on Tuesday, which saw the third lowest primary voter turnout in Ohio since 1986. Only 20% of registered voters could rouse themselves to vote in a year of great challenge to our nation.

In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Vance won with 31% of the vote (218,053 votes)—which, by definition, means that 69% of the Republicans who bothered to show up did not vote for the Trump-endorsed candidate (or 478,333 votes that did not go to Vance). And note that the anti-Trump candidate garnered 22% of the vote (152,198 votes). That’s not nothing!
In a state with 8.1 million registered voters, we should be mindful of the “law of small numbers” in interpreting Vance’s win with 218,053 votes. (The law of small numbers is a cognitive bias that refers to the tendency to draw broad conclusions based on a small dataset.) It would be easy to over-interpret Vance’s win by “scaling-up” his winning margin in the primary to project his performance in the 2022 statewide election for U.S. Senator. That intuitive approach is wrong, at least in Ohio.”

Read the whole piece by Robert P. Hubble here:


Cited and related links:

  1. roberthubbell.substack.com

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Comments on "Trump Dominates Ohio Republicans!!!":

  1. by HatetheSwamp on May 5, 2022 6:00 am

    As you know, isle, I despise Trump. I think he's despicable.

    You may not remember that I used to live in Ohio. Before the Trump endorsement, I was rooting for Vance in Ohio. Afterwards, I was rooting against him. I wanted to see Trump fail miserably in his effort to reshape Congress in 023.

    But, Trump went 22 for 22 in Ohio and Indiana. Fox is reporting that in recent primaries, he's 55-0. Certainly not all 55 would have lost without Trump, but even you have to acknowledge Trump's influence.

    Your Mr Hubbell is a jacka$$. The truth is that all of the Ohio Senate candidates proclaimed themselves to be MAGA GOPs, even, ESPECIALLY, after Trump endorsed Vance.

    Here in Pennsylvania, most GOPs are really pi$$ed at Trump for endorsing Dr Oz but the other candidates are still campaigning on supporting the MAGA agenda.

    I seriously don't want Dr Oz to win. And, I really want Trump to fail in shaping the GOP for 023. But, I'm losing hope.

    Face it, bubba. As much as both of us want Trump to fade into the past, that probably ain't gunna happen.

    The difference between us is TDS. I'm capable of reason. You? Bahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!


  2. by islander on May 6, 2022 5:45 am
    Why do you say Hubble is a jackass? Is it because you don’t like or agree with him?

    What is that he said that you don’t agree with?


    Is it because he said that, ” Democrats can win in Ohio, notwithstanding J.D. Vance’s victory.” ?

    Or is it because he said the primary was pathetic in that such a tiny fraction of voters even bothered to show up and four or five candidates that trump endorsed were running unopposed?

    Or maybe it is simply because he said not to put too much emphasis on Trump’s strength simply because 20 % of Republicans who voted in the primaries voted for someone he endorsed, especially since Independents in Ohio outnumber both the Democrats and the Republican and they will probably be the ones who decide the 2022 election outcomes there.

    Hubble also said this;

    “In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Vance won with 31% of the vote (218,053 votes)—which, by definition, means that 69% of the Republicans who bothered to show up did not vote for the Trump-endorsed candidate (or 478,333 votes that did not go to Vance)”
    Then too there is this;

    “In a state with 8.1 million registered voters, we should be mindful of the “law of small numbers” in interpreting Vance’s win with 218,053 votes. (The law of small numbers is a cognitive bias that refers to the tendency to draw broad conclusions based on a small dataset.)”


  3. by HatetheSwamp on May 6, 2022 7:37 am

    isle,

    I reeeeeeeeeeeeally wanted Vance to lose. For the sake of a GOP blow out in 024, I want Trump to fall flat on his face in 022 and that didn't happen in Ohio. Belittle the achievement all you want but Vance was dead in the water before Trump endorsed him and Vance won going away.

    Probably more than anything else, what fascinates me most in politics today is TDS. I despise Trump. I think he's despicable...but I don't have TDS.

    Clearly, Hubbell has a bad case.

    As do you.

    I suppose it was unkind to say that Hubbell is a jacka$$. He has a mental illness. It's not his fault...or yours.

    I'd love to think that the TDS takes on the GOP primaries have some juice.

    But, it's just insanity.


  4. by islander on May 6, 2022 1:29 pm

    ”Probably more than anything else, what fascinates me most in politics today is TDS. I despise Trump. I think he's despicable...but I don't have TDS.”---Hate

    Of course you have TDS (the real thing).

    Those MAGA Republicans who supported and enabled Trump to become president, when they could finally no longer deny what an incompetent con man and carnival huckster he is and knowing full well that he was unfit to be president...You guys voted for him “again ”! That’s True TDS.

    And like you, they have said they’ll vote for him in 2024 if he is the Republican candidate. Those with true TDS, after having been thrilled to see their guy win in 2016, NOW, at least the less dense ones, proclaim over and over to anyone who will listen that they really and truly despise their guy and say he is despicable! Why? Because they can’t deny we were right all along when we told them what he was! (in the position the MAGAs are in what else can they say?).

    But…but…they stutter, we will vote for him a third time if you Dems don’t nominate someone WE approve of…And when we do vote for Trump, it will be ALL YOUR FAULT ! 🙄

    You made us vote for him !! “True TDS” LoL

    Part of their derangement syndrome is that they honestly can’t see or understand how foolish and childlike their argument is. It’s would actually be quite comical to watch them and listen to them if it weren’t really so sad.

    And of course in your delusional state you think Hubble is mentally ill because he explained to you what “The Law of Small Numbers” is and how it applies to Vance and the Ohio Republican Primary! Ha ha ha !

    What can we say?



  5. by HatetheSwamp on May 6, 2022 3:27 pm

    isle,

    I'd love for Hubbell to be bang on but I'm watching candidates in GOP Primaries shout, "Pick me! Pick me!!!!!" When he considers if he'll endorse. Then watch them win.

    I'll hate it Trump's the nominee in 024 but the compensation will be observing you poop your knickers.


  6. by islander on May 6, 2022 5:09 pm
    Suure you'd hate it !! LoL


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