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Would or “could” Putin ever launch a nuclear attack?

By islander
March 22, 2022 7:03 am
Category: Opinion
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Is it something we really have to be overly concerned about? Naturally, the possibility is always there but how likely is it even if Putin is a full fledged psycho? Would those around him and the Russian oligarchs allow him to do that? My guess is that it is extremely unlikely. 



When you think about the rich and powerful oligarchs in Russia living in luxury, does anyone really think they’d let Putin end all that by, in effect, destroying the world, thereby putting an end to their dinners in Paris, shopping in Dubai, sailing around the world on their yachts?




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Comments:

  1. by Donna on March 22, 2022 8:51 am
    I don't think he would either, for the reason you cited.

    But what if he's gone off the deep end?

    We can sit at home and say "I think we should call his bluff", but if we were in charge of making that decision, then I think we'd be much less inclined to take a chance with civilization literally at stake.


  2. by HatetheSwamp on March 22, 2022 9:08 am

    The retired Generals who appear on Fox...just had to say Fox part, I'm sure I heard it on MSNBC, too...say that it's standard Russian strategy to escalate prior to negotiate.

    They say that launching a tactical nuke would be consistent with the way Russia fights. Probably not in a densely populated area. So, I dunno.


  3. by islander on March 22, 2022 9:47 am

    Donna,

    Naturally we’re just guessing bu the way this is going I think that we will at some point have to call his bluff. Putin has just threatened to cut off the supply lines bringing food, weapons, and medical supplies into Ukraine. If they were coming from say Poland, a NATO member, and Russia began attacking those convoys wouldn’t that be an attack on a NATO member? And we could then justify attacking the Russian's supply lines into Ukraine? And what happens next?

 As far as Putin having become unhinged, I think those around him would be aware of it even before we were and hopefully would not allow Putin to destroy them along with everything else which a nuclear attack would do. They were living a very good life before Putin's misadventure into Ukraine. Would they want to give all that up?
 For what???


  4. by Curt_Anderson on March 22, 2022 11:22 am
    Not incorrectly Biden called Putin a war criminal. If your family were being held hostage by criminal who was threatening to kill them unless a ransom was paid, could you, would you bet they were bluffing?

    As my son says "criminals are stupid". Stupid or not, criminals, including Putin, don't make rational decisions.


  5. by Donna on March 22, 2022 11:27 am
    Contrary to what US Intelligence agencies said a few weeks ago, it has always seemed to me that Putin is itching for a war with NATO.


  6. by islander on March 22, 2022 11:52 am

    Curt,
    Putin himself "might be" irrational enough to launch a nuclear attack, but I don’t think those around him would let him, just like I was never really worried that, as irrational as he is, Trump could launch a nuclear attack that would destroy the world.

    As amoral and greedy as they might be, I don’t think the Russian oligarchs would ever let it get to the point where Putin could launch such an attack. It would mean they would lose “everything” they have...including their lives. I suspect that if they thought Putin might seriously be thinking of launching such an attack, one way or another Putin would be “gone” from the scene long before he could actually attempt to do such a totally insane thing.


  7. by islander on March 22, 2022 12:00 pm

    Donna,

    There might have been a time when Putin dreamed of a war with NATO, but personally, I think now that he has actually been able to witness his military in action against the tiny nation of Ukraine this past month, I doubt he has any more illusions about taking on NATO.


  8. by Curt_Anderson on March 22, 2022 12:18 pm
    Islander,
    Trump is a would-be despot. Putin is a despot. I don't believe Putin's worst instincts are checked and balanced.

    This morning on NPR I heard a former NATO commander, General Breedlove (as I recall he was introduced) say he was most worried about a frustrated and desperate Putin acting irrationally.


  9. by islander on March 22, 2022 12:36 pm

    Curt,

    While I fully agree that Putin, if frustrated and desperate could act irrationally and he probably doesn't have the "official" kind of checks and balances we have that kept Trump from doing anything as insane as launching a nuclear attack, I do think in Russia, they likely have their own "unofficial means of ensuring that Putin does not destroy Russia and the rest of the world with it.

    As we watch this unfold I'm glad I don't have to make the kinds of decisions that are going to have to be made.


  10. by Curt_Anderson on March 22, 2022 12:49 pm
    Islander,
    I hope you are correct in your first paragraph and I agree with your second paragraph.


  11. by HatetheSwamp on March 23, 2022 3:20 am

    Trump is a would-be despot. Putin is a despot.

    ----------

    ...probably doesn't have the "official" kind of checks and balances we have that kept Trump from doing anything as insane as launching a nuclear attack...


    Trump Trump Trump Trump
    Trump Trump Trump Trump
    Trump Trump Trump Trump...

    TRUMP

    Bahahahahahahahahahaha.

    Ain't TDS cute?




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