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Texas legislature passed the gerrymandering Trump wanted; California voters countered it.
By Curt_Anderson
November 11, 2025 12:57 pm
Category: Politics
(0.0 from 0 votes)
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Redistricting is more popular in California than in Texas. Does it matter?

Come the midterm elections, will voters care if they voted for redistricting themselves or if their state's legislature passed it? Will those California voters be more motivated next year? Based on polls, those polled in California were 17% more likely to approve of gerrymandering their state than Texas poll respondents.

The conundrum for those who endeavor to gerrymander, is that while they may have more districts that lean in their party's direction, they are simultaneously diluting, thus endangering, their supposedly solid districts. In RCP's 2026 Generic Congressional Vote, Democrats nationally have a 4.5% edge over Republicans.

A [September 19, 2025] Emerson College Polling survey of California voters finds 51% plan to vote in favor of Proposition 50 in the November special election, which would authorize temporary changes to congressional district maps. Thirty-four percent plan to vote no, and 15% are undecided. Support for Prop. 50 is higher among those “very likely” to vote in the November special election, 55% of whom plan to vote yes and 35% no.

California's Prop. 50 passed with 64.6% of the vote with 35.4% voting no. Essentially all the undecided in the September poll voted yes in November.



Only one-third of Texas voters approve of the GOP-led effort to redraw the state’s congressional map, according to a [September 9, 2025] statewide poll, which found that independent and Democratic voters overwhelmingly opposed the mid-decade redistricting and would rather give control of Texas’ political maps to an appointed commission.

Just 13% of independent voters approve of state lawmakers redrawing the congressional map, while 41% are against it, according to the survey released Tuesday by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. Overall, 34% of voters said they approved and 41% said they disapproved of the effort, with nearly two-thirds of Republicans voicing support.


Cited and related links:

  1. emersoncollegepolling.com
  2. texastribune.org
  3. realclearpolling.com

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Comments on "Texas legislature passed the gerrymandering Trump wanted; California voters countered it.":

  1. by HatetheSwamp on November 11, 2025 1:03 pm

    Gerrymandering: Don't you just HatetheSwamp !!!!!?


  2. by Curt_Anderson on November 11, 2025 1:17 pm
    Personally, I don't care if there is gerrymandering or not, just as long as it's done equally and to the same degree in every state. Currently, Democrats are at a disadvantage.

    As of September 2025 (119th United States Congress), the states that have two Democrat senators and a majority of Republican Representatives in the U.S. House are:
    Arizona
    Michigan
    Nevada
    Pennsylvania
    Wisconsin

    As of September 2025 (119th United States Congress), there are currently no states that have two Republican senators and a majority of Democratic Representatives.

    In other words, states that overall prefer Democrats (as demonstrated by statewide senatorial elections) are overrepresented at the district level by Republicans in the House.


  3. by Donna on November 11, 2025 1:39 pm

    I expect Arizona to become a Blue state by 2030 if not sooner. A lot of Californians have been moving to Arizona, and I suspect that most of them are coming from the areas of CA where housing and rental costs are particularly high, which is also where most people are Democrats.

    Gerrymanering works very well, which is why for instance Texas is a solid red state even though registered Democrats far outnumber registered Republicans there.

    If the midterms had been held last week, it's possible that with so many Americans now souring on Trump, even Texas's RE-gerrymandering efforts would have yielded no additional Red House seats.



  4. by HatetheSwamp on November 11, 2025 1:42 pm

    "Currently, Democrats are at a disadvantage."

    As ole pb noted when Gavin proposed retaliating against what Texas did. But, nooooooooo!


  5. by HatetheSwamp on November 11, 2025 1:45 pm

    Donna,

    I admire your glass-is-half-full radical progressivism. Keep a good thought, man!


  6. by Curt_Anderson on November 11, 2025 1:58 pm
    Donna,
    My sense is that since Texas has been electing Republicans in presidential and senate elections, there really are more Republican voters there.

    According to AI:
    Texas does not register voters by political party, so there are no official, state-maintained counts of registered Democrats and Republicans (see link).
    However, third-party organizations model party affiliation based on a voter's participation in past partisan primary elections. One such analysis, updated in August 2025, estimated the following breakdown:
    Registered Democrats: Approximately 8.1 million (46.52% of total registered voters).
    Registered Republicans: Approximately 6.6 million (37.75% of total registered voters).
    Unaffiliated: Approximately 2.75 million (15.73%).




    independentvoterproject.org


  7. by Donna on November 11, 2025 2:37 pm

    How has Texas been able to gerrymander the state without knowing the political makeup of the districts?







  8. by HatetheSwamp on November 11, 2025 2:41 pm

    Donna,

    I assume based on voting in previous elections.


  9. by Donna on November 11, 2025 3:10 pm

    Right. AI said that. My question was rhetorical, directed at Curt, and to the point about Texans not registering with political parties.

    So Curt, if, say, you have 2 districts, A and B, and you know by past election data that 60% of the voters in each district always or usually vote Democrat, and 40% in each always or usually vote Republican, and you know where all those voters live, then it's just a matter of carving off half of the Democratic voters in District A and making them part of District B, thus sacrificing District B to the Dem candidate where they had an advantage anyhow, while manufacturing a win for the GOP candidate in District A.

    It's not an exact science, but it works, eslecially in states where residents register with political parties.




  10. by Curt_Anderson on November 11, 2025 5:30 pm
    "So Curt, if, say, you have 2 districts, A and B, and you know by past election data that 60% of the voters in each district always or usually vote Democrat, and 40% in each always or usually vote Republican..." ---Donna

    To simplify, say there are two districts with a total of 100,000 voters: 60,000 are Democrats 40,000 are Republicans. Before gerrymandering, they are equal with 30,000 who are Democrats and 20,000 who are Republican in each district. A 20% Democratic advantage in both districts. Of course in reality, some people always vote for their party, some are wishy-washy.

    To make one district more Republican, the borderlines are moved so that one district has 27,500 Republicans and 22,500 Democrats or 55% and 45%. That's a 10% Republican edge, any less is a single digit edge making the contests competitive, therefore expensive.

    The other district then has 37,500 Democrats and 12,500 Republicans. There the Democrat is a shoo-in. The Democrats can afford to spend that money elsewhere.

    Nick Corasaniti of the NY Times explains what I was saying about gerrymandering being trickier than popular opinion would have it.




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