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Opinion selectors, pages, etc.
The winner of the presidential election will be...
By Curt_Anderson
November 4, 2024 12:04 pm
Category: Opinion

(5.0 from 1 vote)
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The polls nationally and in every battleground state are essentially tied and within the margin of error.

Prognosticator and poll analyzer Nate Silver wrote recently in the New York Times that the race is a virtual tie, but his "gut" tells him Trump will prevail.

The last time I looked at 538's presidential forecast, they gave Trump more chances of winning than Harris. Even without looking, I am sure that Polymarket has Trump winning the election.

But you want to know what I, the Oracle of Ashland, predict the outcome of the election will be. I foresee Kamala Harris winning the election with close to 300 electoral votes.

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Comments on "The winner of the presidential election will be...":

  1. by Indy! on November 4, 2024 12:05 pm

    If Trump wins, someone remember to turn out the light after all the smart people have left.

  2. by Curt_Anderson on November 4, 2024 1:10 pm
    If you watched any live reports on CNN or MSNBC, (I wouldn't expect that FOX will show it) you will get a sense of Trump's current campaigning. Trump looks like he is trying out for the role of Willy Lohman in "Death of a Salesman". He is alternating angry, morose, inappropriate, threatening, whiny and worried.

    Donald J. Trump has been showing signs of fatigue lately, on days in which he has a busy schedule and when he hasn’t been sleeping at his own hotels and residences. His voice is raspy in Raleigh, and he looks tired on stage.

    Donald J. Trump just took the stage at Santander Arena in Reading, Pa., which is about half full.

    The former president kicked off Monday, the final day before Election Day, at the Dorton Arena in Raleigh, N.C., where the section behind the stage still had several dozen empty seats when he finally took the stage about an hour later than expected. There were a couple thousand supporters inside, but the back of the arena had several empty rows. And there was no line outside. ---NY Times reports

    nytimes.com

  3. by HatetheSwamp on November 4, 2024 1:20 pm

    Polymarket is interesting. During Saturday and Sunday, it had Trump plummeting from 66 to 55. Since then, he's rebounding.

    But, IMO Polymarket and other betting sites are good to identify trends in the moment. FYI, at the moment Trump is up 58-42 on Polymarket.

  4. by Indy! on November 4, 2024 8:50 pm

    When has he ever NOT been "alternating angry, morose, inappropriate, threatening, whiny and worried"? He's a bitter old lonely dirtbag racsist nobody wants to know past the time they get whatever they want out of him.


    PolyMAGAt means absolutely nothing to the election, pb. Just Leon trying to make Trumpers like you feel as though Fat Ass has a chance by burning a lot of his cash on stupid bets.

  5. by Curt_Anderson on November 4, 2024 9:23 pm
    Harris ended her day with a star-studded event at the “Rocky” steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art. Earlier, Harris told a crowd of supporters in Pittsburgh that “the momentum is on our side,” while Trump appeared ready to blame his supporters if he lost. “The only way we can blow it is if you blow it,” the former president said at an event in the same city.


    washingtonpost.com

  6. by ROB3RT on November 4, 2024 11:00 pm

    No clear favorite, and race could go either way, but gun pointed at head, at this moment I'd probably say Harris will win.

    She has late momentum. She has better favorability ratings than Trump, so late deciders are more likely to break her way. The Des Moines Register poll suggests she has a shot at Iowa, and is probably doing better than the polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania still problematic. But Trump sure looks like his internal polls are scaring him. He wouldn't be spending so much time in N.C. if he had it locked down.

    Maybe a better question -- At what hour will you be inebriated? (9:07 p.m. Pacific Time for me.)

  7. by Curt_Anderson on November 4, 2024 11:11 pm
    Hi Robert,
    I voted for all the Democrats running and "yes" on all the measures except for Oregon Measure 118, Corporate Tax Revenue Rebate for Residents Initiative. So I will want to stay sober for a little while to hear the state results.


  8. by HatetheSwamp on November 5, 2024 4:05 am

    "Harris ended her day with a star-studded event at the “Rocky” steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art."

    Exactly what Hillary did.

  9. by HatetheSwamp on November 5, 2024 4:12 am

    Rob3rt,

    "She has late momentum."

    Interestingly, on Saturday and Sunday the betting markets were going bonkers for the Dingbat. Then, on Monday, they reversed and went crazy for Trump.

    Days ago, I filled out the interactive map on 270toWin.com and came up with Kammy winning 270-268.

    That's my story and I'm stickin to it.

    270towin.com

  10. by Ponderer on November 5, 2024 5:14 am

    I believe that Harris's soon to be surprise "Landslide" win will be on account of a great many aspects and motivations of American voters that can't be captured in polls. I tell ya what.

  11. by HatetheSwamp on November 5, 2024 6:28 am

    How bout qualifying your prediction.


    270towin.com

  12. by Ponderer on November 5, 2024 7:04 am

    How bout going and fuckingyourself.

  13. by HatetheSwamp on November 5, 2024 7:19 am

    Why won't you do it? It's actually fun little game.

  14. by Ponderer on November 5, 2024 7:29 am

    I'll leave it to you experts.

  15. by HatetheSwamp on November 5, 2024 7:49 am

    I know. So you can claim to have nailed it based on an imprecise claim. I have you figured out. Bahaha.

  16. by Donna on November 5, 2024 7:56 am

    "If you watched any live reports on CNN or MSNBC, (I wouldn't expect that FOX will show it) you will get a sense of Trump's current campaigning. Trump looks like he is trying out for the role of Willy Lohman in "Death of a Salesman". He is alternating angry, morose, inappropriate, threatening, whiny and worried." - Curt

    😅 I just shared your comment with a close friend.

    ROB3RT - Data is showing that late deciders are breaking hugely for Harris. I suspect that people who don't follow politics are comparing the two candidates for the first time and going, 'Holy crap! We can't have that guy running the country!'

    And then there's the October Surprise Trump inflicted on himself at his proto-fascist hatefest last week where he managed to allow an unknown comic to alienate the entire population of Puerto Rico.

    I think it's looking very good for Harris/Walz.


  17. by HatetheSwamp on November 5, 2024 8:14 am

    "ROB3RT - Data is showing that late deciders are breaking hugely for Harris."

    Bahahahahahahahahahaha haha ha!

    Link? Now, that's a joke, eh?


    Ole pb, who keeps an eye on the betting markets, saw a move to Mckneepads from Friday into early Sunday. Since then, it's all Trump. See link, there, Donna. Keehee.

    pb's definitely getting nervous.
    polymarket.com

  18. by HatetheSwamp on November 5, 2024 8:26 am

    Rob3rt,

    See RCP betting odds graph. Trump is pulling away...in the moment... for what it's worth.


    realclearpolling.com

  19. by Indy! on November 5, 2024 8:33 am

    Betting odds are not polls. They tell us nothing - you're only using them because that's the only place your orange monkey master is leading and it's only because Leon Musk is controlling the numbers.

  20. by Ponderer on November 5, 2024 8:37 am

    "Maybe a better question -- At what hour will you be inebriated? (9:07 p.m. Pacific Time for me.)" -ROB3RT

    It's gonna be Sativa City here once Donna gets back from working at a polling place. I'll be hopping the Gummy Train here before too long. Got one more outside chore to finish yet...

  21. by Indy! on November 5, 2024 8:42 am

    Gummies have no effect on me. Don't know why. I can feel the THC drinks working, I can feel the smoke working - gummies? Nothing.

  22. by Curt_Anderson on November 5, 2024 11:27 am
    Bold Predictions!!!

    According to Silver's forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to former President Donald Trump's 49.6 percent.


    538 in an update on Election Day, Harris came out as the favorite, winning 50 times out of 100 over Trump winning 49 times out of 100.
    newsweek.com
    newsweek.com

  23. by Ponderer on November 5, 2024 11:58 am

    What dosage of them were you eating, Indy!?

  24. by HatetheSwamp on November 5, 2024 12:52 pm

    Let me start off with two words. I support Kammy. I support Kammy! But,...

    Curt,

    We're about to find out.

    Do you remember in 016, Silver had Hillary at 71.4%? Do you remember that, in 020, 538 was off by 3.9% in favor of that "dithering and diminished" "feckless dementia-ridden" Doddering Old Fool?

    It's amazing to ole pb. Everyone seems to be abdicating their role this time around.

    Are you comfortable with Silver saying that the race is a toss-up.

    BTW, that gay Guy you never heard of said about a half hour ago that election day data points to a narrow Trump victory.

    I've called it for Kammy 270-268. That's my story and I'm stickin to it.

    But, just between the two of us, I'll enjoy po's enraged, deranged TrumpHate much more than your faithful Good Germaning for Kammy.

  25. by Curt_Anderson on November 5, 2024 1:12 pm
    I don’t need graduates of the Chicago School of Economics to tell me that the odds of a coin flip are 50/50 which is basically what Nate Silver and 538 did with this election. I am predicting Harris will close to 300 electoral votes.

  26. by HatetheSwamp on November 5, 2024 1:22 pm

    270-268. That's my story and I'm stickin to it.


    Curt,

    270 includes Kammy taking the whole blue wall. Which states are you adding to get your total?

  27. by Curt_Anderson on November 5, 2024 1:41 pm
    I didn't break it down as carefully as you, HtS. I see Harris taking the blue wall states, Nevada, (South Carolina and/or Georgia). That would be close to 300.

    I would not be shocked if she wins a non-swing state that neither of the candidates gave much attention to. Iowa or Florida come to mind.


  28. by meagain on November 5, 2024 2:08 pm

    ""dithering and diminished" "feckless dementia-ridden" Doddering Old Fool?"

    Why do you continually refer to Trump this way? It is not dementia. It is a psychopathy.

  29. by ROB3RT on November 5, 2024 5:40 pm

    Curt:

    I voted the same way as you on the ballot measures, against 118 and for everything else. I didn't really have strong feelings on any of them, except for the ranked choice voting, which I hope passes. My guess is we'll have a pretty good idea of the results by a little after 8 p.m., when they release the first counts. The polling I've seen suggests that 118 is going to lose 70-30. Not sure about the others, but I don't think there are going to be many nailbiters.

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