As I noted a few days ago, I'm predicting a Kammy victory by the most narrow of margins. I did the 270toWin.com interactive map and predicted a 270-268 Kammy victory. (4th link)
The question? How well are the polls counting the Trump vote? Nationally,
in 020, according to RCP, the polls undercounted by 2.7%. In 016, it was 3.1%.
However,...
For the most part, even right-wing pundits are trusting 024 polls.
Here's the thing. In 020:
RCP polls got Pennsylvania exactly right, which surprised me. Today, Trump is up 0.4.
In 020 those polls undercounted Trump's vote in Michigan, by 1.4%. Today, Trump is up 2.1%. THAT ADDS UP TO TRUMP +3.5%.
In 020, those polls undercounted Trump's vote in Wisconsin by a whopping 6.0%. Today Trump is up 2.9%. That'd give Trump a 8.9% win. I can't believe that.
I came up with Kammy winning 270-268 by giving her all the of those "Big Ten states." My gut tells me that she's really ahead there AND Philadelphia and Detroit are corrupt.
But, still...