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Will battleground state polls undercount Trump's vote?
By HatetheSwamp
November 3, 2024 3:54 am
Category: Politics

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As I noted a few days ago, I'm predicting a Kammy victory by the most narrow of margins. I did the 270toWin.com interactive map and predicted a 270-268 Kammy victory. (4th link)

The question? How well are the polls counting the Trump vote? Nationally,
in 020, according to RCP, the polls undercounted by 2.7%. In 016, it was 3.1%.

However,...

For the most part, even right-wing pundits are trusting 024 polls.


Here's the thing. In 020:

RCP polls got Pennsylvania exactly right, which surprised me. Today, Trump is up 0.4.

In 020 those polls undercounted Trump's vote in Michigan, by 1.4%. Today, Trump is up 2.1%. THAT ADDS UP TO TRUMP +3.5%.

In 020, those polls undercounted Trump's vote in Wisconsin by a whopping 6.0%. Today Trump is up 2.9%. That'd give Trump a 8.9% win. I can't believe that.

I came up with Kammy winning 270-268 by giving her all the of those "Big Ten states." My gut tells me that she's really ahead there AND Philadelphia and Detroit are corrupt.

But, still...


Cited and related links:

  1. realclearpolling.com
  2. realclearpolling.com
  3. realclearpolling.com
  4. 270towin.com

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Comments on "Will battleground state polls undercount Trump's vote?":

  1. by Ponderer on November 3, 2024 5:29 am

    "For the most part, even right-wing pundits are trusting 024 polls." -Hate

    Well then, they also must trust the margin of error and will accept the results if they fit within them.


    But you Crybaby MAGA Hats are going to cry foul no matter what if he doesn't win. You will simply never accept that your Glorious Orange God can lose an election without the other side having cheated.

    You will never accept how tremendously widespread the absolute disgust and hatred for your Mango Mussolini is for the majority of this country.

    You will never accept what a whining crybaby of a sore loser your cult's leader is, and you'll dutifully join him like mindless lemmings in his whining and crying. You'll spread whatever lies he pulls out of that fat orange ass and help foment a nation-wide, infantile tantrum of chaos.

    Because youfucking MAGA Hats are sore losers too. The BIGGEST. You've already more than proved that fact. Willing to swallow Trump's flaming horseshit lies and asinine and provably false fraud theories just because you can't accept such a human fallibility in your Golden God as him losing an election.


    And I expect that you and the entire MAGA Hat Party will be so incredulously apoplectic that Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump in a "Landslide" that you're whining and crying and bitching and moaning and accusing and bullshitting and stomping of feet and gnashing of teeth will be absolutely unbridled. Because of the enormous sore losers that you all are.


    Our side's reaction if Kamala loses...?

    Dear God we will be upset. And terribly depressed even to tears about it and what will become of our country at the hands of that megalomaniacal, criminal maniac.

    But we aren't going to make up a bunch of bullshit about how he stole the election from Harris. There will be no violent attempts to overthrow the government just because we are sore losers. We will accept the verified results. And if Harris loses, we will accept it. Like we accepted Trump's first win.

    And Kamala Harris will accept her defeat with honor and respect for our democratic system of government.



    Let's see how Trump accepts her beating him in a "Landslide" I tell ya what.


  2. by HatetheSwamp on November 3, 2024 6:23 am

    " expect that you and the entire MAGA Hat Party will be so incredulously apoplectic that Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump in a "Landslide"..."

    Oh, please, please, please, please, please!!!!! Gimme four years of Cackles Mckneepads in the Oval Office!!!!!


  3. by HatetheSwamp on November 3, 2024 6:25 am

    po,

    How about doing the 270toWin.com interactive map and let us know what you come up with. Put your landslide in real numbers.


    270towin.com


  4. by Ponderer on November 3, 2024 11:09 am

    How 'bout if instead, I don't... and you go fuckyourself, Bill...?


  5. by HatetheSwamp on November 3, 2024 11:15 am

    Why wouldn't you? Do you lack the intellect?


  6. by Indy! on November 3, 2024 1:31 pm

    Will battleground state polls undercount Trump's vote?

    Well let's certainly hope so.


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