By HatetheSwamp November 1, 2024 8:09 am Category: Politics (0.0 from 0 votes)
Rules of the Post
The site I link to below is perfect for a numbers nerd... which I am. There are several places that you can go to find an interactive election map. This one is very user friendly.
It allows a user to project presidential election results in the Electoral College simply by clicking on a state on the map.
You can choose a version of the map which declares the projected winner in every state that's not an acknowledged battleground state, though you can decide, as an example that you think, say, Florida is really going to go to Kammy, you can change it to Dem and see what the Electoral College total will be.
So, ole pb used the map and accepted the projected result in all but the seven battleground states:
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Michigan, and
Wisconsin.
pb does love numbers so he's pretty up to date on state by state polling and, for the most part, he grooves on the polls...
... though pb'd love to know, from po and Donna, what's their objective sense of how Arizona will go. (538 has OrangeTurdBad up 2.3, RCP has him up 5.8, though no polling has been recent.)
Anyway,
pb did his best guess state by state. He won't say the particulars in the hope that others will do it, too, and we can chat it over.
But, as my title suggests, I have the result at 270-268... with Kammy winning. My only reservation is over Wisconsin. 538 has Kammy up 0.7 and RCP has Trump up 2.9. Pollsters have grossly undercounted the Trump vote in Wisconsin in both 016 and 020. I'm picking Kammy there, but if Trump wins he'd take the election 278-260. But, for now, I'm going with Kammy by 2.
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Comments on "pb's Electoral College prediction: 270-268":
The site I link to below is perfect for a numbers nerd... which I am. There are several places that you can go to find an interactive election map. This one is very user friendly. 
