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Politics selectors, pages, etc.
The indicators look good for Harris, but they don't mean anything.
By Curt_Anderson
September 18, 2024 3:13 pm
Category: Politics

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The polls have been so close for so long, forecasters and the media are overly sensitive to small changes in the polling. It's still very close. A misstep by a candidate, an unexpected event or even the weather on election day could have a huge impact on the election outcome. The candidate with the best voter turnout operation wins, not who leads in the final polls.

Of course, it's better to be leading in the polls than trailing. Being ahead encourages donors and helps with volunteer enthusiasm even if it doesn't guarantee victory.

As of Wednesday afternoon, [Nate] Silver's polling averages show that the vice president is leading Trump by 3.1 percentage points nationwide (49.1 percent to 46 percent). While Silver has predicted for several weeks that Trump has a higher chance of victory, Harris has started to make gains in a handful of battleground states, boosting her probability of securing the necessary 270 electoral votes in November.

"Another very good day of polling for Kamala Harris," Silver wrote in his latest update of the Silver Bulletin.



PolyMarket has Harris up 51-47 over Trump.


Harris wins 63 times out of 100, Trump wins 37 times out of 100 in 538's simulations of the 2024 presidential election.

Cited and related links:

  1. newsweek.com
  2. polymarket.com
  3. projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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The views and claims expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views and beliefs of SelectSmart.com. Not every statement made here can be assumed to be a fact.
Comments on "The indicators look good for Harris, but they don't mean anything.":

  1. by Indy! on September 18, 2024 8:32 pm

    Trump is the country's redheaded step child after the pets thing. 😂


  2. by oldedude on September 18, 2024 9:18 pm
    Perhaps. Buty you're already too wrapped up with so many convoluding ideas you can't keept them strait9 Or oh ever you want to phrase it. I'm sorry if it mis gendered you. Because that's a bigger societal breech than genocide.


  3. by HatetheSwamp on September 19, 2024 3:55 am

    Let me start off with two words. I support Kammy. I support Kammy.

    Polymarket is weird. Kammy is, indeed, pulling away. But, Trump's favored on Polymarket in many of the purple states.

    What pb predicted from the beginning is that Kammy will win a huge victory in California and New York and New England. It's the purple states that will be her problem. It's possible that Trump will win the Electoral College and Kammy may win the biggest popular vote victory since Bush I in 88.

    Nate Silver is correct to have this a toss-up. He was off in the popular vote in 020 by 3.9% plus Kammy will have to win the popular vote by a lot to have a chance in the Electoral College.


  4. by meagain on September 19, 2024 9:22 am
    "Missteps will not hurt Trump very much. They will harm Harris.


  5. by Indy! on September 19, 2024 9:59 am

    LOL! Nate "2016" Silver already hedging his bets. 😂


  6. by HatetheSwamp on September 20, 2024 6:40 am

    Gang,

    Did you notice. Polymarket is swinging back to Trump?

    But, let's keep a good thought.


  7. by HatetheSwamp on September 20, 2024 6:43 am

    And, I just checked the RCP 2016 betting odds. They had Hillary at 88%.

    The d@ng silent Trump voter!

    realclearpolitics.com


  8. by meagain on September 20, 2024 8:14 am
    New poll result this morning from The Economist/YouGov. Harris is now up 4% ver Trump.


  9. by Indy! on September 20, 2024 9:39 am

    The definition of optimism...


    by HatetheSwamp on September 20, 2024 6:40 am

    Gang,

    Did you notice. Polymarket is swinging back to Trump?


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