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Media selectors, pages, etc.
NEWSWEEK: Oy freakin friggin EFFINvey! Trump favored over Kammy 64-36%
By HatetheSwamp
September 9, 2024 4:08 am
Category: Media

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"Silver predicted on Sunday that Trump now has a 63.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris' 36 percent chance."


Now, as often. Let me start off with two words. I support Kammy. I support Kammy. But,...

Two important facts. After the Kammy DNC joy-fest, briefly, Silver had Kammy up by 1% over OrangeTurdBad... very briefly.

Since then, steadily Trump has been moving forward. But, HOLYCRAP, Batman!

Mid last week, Silver jumped up to Trump 56-43. Now, in only those few days, he has Trump up 63.6 to 36, a huuuuuuuuuge jump.

Now, gang, that's fact. And, in case you are unaware, Silver is very open about his own choice in the election. HE WILL BE VOTING FOR HARRIS. Silver is a nerd. A seeker of truth,... just like ole pb. He's a straight shooter.

pb noted last week, as he watched the Hannity Trump Townhall, that Trump appears more mellow and relaxed than pb's ever seen him. pb speculated that internal polling may be showing him that he has the election locked up. I dunno. Trump's definitely different... and, now, Silver is no longer calling the race a toss-up with Trump leading. He's saying that Trump is in the lead.

*****

BTW, the current schpeel on Fox News is:

The Harris campaign is ‘already downplaying her performance before it even happens’
(see Fox News link)

Four years of Kammy as President would be a world-class hoot. But, pb's beginning... only beginning to have his doubts.

Whadaya think?


Cited and related links:

  1. newsweek.com
  2. foxnews.com



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Comments on "NEWSWEEK: Oy freakin friggin EFFINvey! Trump favored over Kammy 64-36%":

  1. by HatetheSwamp on September 9, 2024 8:24 am

    Also,...

    RCP betting odds: Trump 52-47
    Polymarket: 52-47

    And, honestly, gang, I can't figure out why.

    pb tries to neutralize the bias of the woke, progressive SwampMedia in judging the political reality. Clearly, he fails.

    If you told ole pb that Nate Silver gives Kammy a 64% chance of winning and that gamblers have KK at 52-47, he'd believe that easier than what's true.
    realclearpolling.com
    polymarket.com


  2. by Indy! on September 9, 2024 10:28 am

    And by "Newsweek" you mean Nate "2016" Silver - who's prediction might be slightly better than PolyMAGAt.


  3. by Curt_Anderson on September 9, 2024 11:10 am
    Polymarket aren’t just a bunch of gamblers, they are British crypto gamblers.


  4. by HatetheSwamp on September 9, 2024 11:21 am

    Curt,

    How's that good news for Kammy?


  5. by Curt_Anderson on September 9, 2024 11:30 am
    HtS,
    Trump proclaimed himself the “Crypto President”. Crypto enthusiasts on Polymarket, like investors in Trump Media stock, are likely to be betting emotionally.


  6. by HatetheSwamp on September 9, 2024 11:36 am

    Nice thought. How about the RCP betting odds?


  7. by HatetheSwamp on September 9, 2024 12:08 pm

    Currently, 538 has Kammy up 2.8. Considering that, in 020, 538 underestimated Trump's vote by 3.9%. Kammy needs to win the popular vote by at least 2.1 to have a shot at winning the Electoral College.

    It's easy to see why Silver has Trump at 64%.


  8. by Indy! on September 9, 2024 3:54 pm

    Keep a good thought, peebs. You're moving up fast on Orange Lardo's Scale of Favorite Useful Idiots.


  9. by HatetheSwamp on September 9, 2024 3:56 pm

    All pb's doing is passing on fact.


  10. by Indy! on September 9, 2024 4:34 pm

    You spelled "gas" wrong.


  11. by Donna on September 10, 2024 1:58 pm

    Political consultant points out 'Nate Silver is paid by Peter Thiel' after 538 projects Trump victory

    "...But veteran conservative consultant Stuart Stevens — a Never Trumper conservative who is supporting Harris — is critical of Silver's forecast, arguing that there is a connection between Silver's FiveThirtyEight and billionaire Trump supporter Peter Thiel.

    In a September 10 post on X, formerly Twitter, Stevens wrote, "Polymarket is Peter Thiel's creation. @NateSilver538 is being paid by Peter Thiel."

    In May, Forbes reported that "controversial billionaire political donor Peter Thiel and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin" had "raised about $70 million in funding for Polymarket."

    According to Axios' Sara Fischer, the predictions market platform Polymarket hired Silver as an adviser in July.




    alternet.org


  12. by HatetheSwamp on September 10, 2024 2:03 pm

    Wow. Donna. You are a conspiracy theorist of the first water!

    So, you got Kammy in the lead?


  13. by Donna on September 10, 2024 2:07 pm

    There's certainly reason to at least question Nate's predictions given that he works for Thiel.

    I think the race is too close to call.


  14. by Curt_Anderson on September 10, 2024 2:18 pm
    Donna,
    I hadn't heard anything about Nate Silver and Thiel. But Nate apparently did...
    x.com


  15. by HatetheSwamp on September 10, 2024 2:24 pm

    So, by how much do you reckin Kammy's ahead?


  16. by Indy! on September 10, 2024 2:30 pm

    Of course. It was easy to see and - again - Indy called it right away. The GOP is transparent - they have no idea when it comes to subterfuge because they're used to fooling their own IQ-deficient crowd. But what works on 3rd graders does not work on those of us who have an education.


  17. by HatetheSwamp on September 10, 2024 2:39 pm

    Indy,

    Would you say that you are more superior than Donna, or only just as superior?


  18. by Indy! on September 10, 2024 2:42 pm

    Not sure peebs. Would you say you're dumber than OD or is that impossible?


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