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Where will the polls be on the cusp of the Conventions?
By HatetheSwamp
June 27, 2024 12:29 pm
Category: Politics

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Today, the "dithering and diminished" Doddering Old Fool is -17.7 on 538. At RCP, Trump's up by 1.5% head to head. Nate Silver gives Trump a 66% shot at winning.

If Joe's even still the Dem nominee, where will we be as the GOP Convention kicks of in mid July?


Cited and related links:

  1. projects.fivethirtyeight.com
  2. realclearpolling.com
  3. usatoday.com

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Comments on "Where will the polls be on the cusp of the Conventions?":

  1. by HatetheSwamp on June 27, 2024 12:53 pm

    FYI:

    Trump has 4-point edge over Biden in post-conviction national poll

    And, pb's made this point before. The NYT poll is always friendly to GOPs and the Fox News polls always like the Dems. The Flatulent Fool is up by 2 according to Fox.

    politico.com


  2. by Curt_Anderson on June 27, 2024 1:14 pm
    If Biden is down 1.5% today on RCP, I'll predict that he draws even when the GOP convention happens in about two and half weeks. I'd say more but RCP and other poll aggregators includes polls that are three weeks old or older in their running averages. Btw, pollsters won't do any polling over the Fourth July holiday weekend.


  3. by HatetheSwamp on June 27, 2024 1:33 pm

    You are a hero of hope. I follow Nate Silver on X. As of today, he has Trump up 1.5.

    If Trump loses by less than half a point, figure a 350-188 ish Electoral College blow out for Trump.

    I still don't believe any of this. And, with the ballot harvesting and ballot curing and diddling with the chain of custody of mail-in ballots. I'm still with Joe.


  4. by Curt_Anderson on June 27, 2024 1:53 pm
    HtS,
    OK, so what is your guess where will the polls be on the cusp of the Conventions?


  5. by HatetheSwamp on June 27, 2024 2:10 pm

    Wapo poll:

    Swing-state ‘deciders’ trust Trump more than Biden to protect democracy: Poll


    The poll, conducted by The Washington Post/Schar School, surveyed voters across six swing states and identified a subgroup of respondents labeled as “deciders.” It found that 38 percent of “deciders” said Trump would do a better job of handling threats of democracy to the U.S., while 29 percent said Biden and 23 percent said neither.


    Trump +9... and "that feckless dementia-ridden piece of crap" has been harping on J6 for three and a half years!

    thehill.com


  6. by Curt_Anderson on June 27, 2024 4:21 pm
    Trump +9! So who is the cockeyed optimist now?


  7. by HatetheSwamp on June 27, 2024 4:40 pm

    It's the WaPo poll, bubba!


  8. by Curt_Anderson on June 27, 2024 5:17 pm
    HtS,
    OK, one more time, so what is YOUR guess where will the polls be on the cusp of the Conventions?


  9. by HatetheSwamp on June 27, 2024 5:29 pm

    OK, one more time, so what is YOUR guess where will the polls be on the cusp of the Conventions?

    Before the debate actually happens?

    Joe's been between -15.5 and -17.5 on 538. I'll guess -16.5.

    I say that RCP has Trump up 1.0%. And, Nate Silver will be giving Trump a 62.5% chance of winning.

    And, po? Will still be telling us that Joe wins in a landslide...

    ... an EFFINLANDSLIDE!


  10. by Curt_Anderson on June 27, 2024 5:51 pm
    Sheesh, HtS, you won’t even answer your own question!


  11. by HatetheSwamp on June 28, 2024 5:32 am

    Curt,

    Huh!!!!!?

    16.5
    1.0
    62.5

    A comprehensive response.


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