Let me start off with two words, I support Biden. I support Biden.
Nate Silver, the elections guru and statistical expert who founded FiveThirtyEight, has come out with his forecasting model for the 2024 presidential election, which suggests that former President and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is favored to beat President Joe Biden in a rematch of their showdown four years ago.
“If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” he added. “So if we’re being honest, pundits who obsess over whether Biden is 1 point ahead in national polls are kind of missing the point.”
Eventually, Silver gets around to unveiling his model, which suggests, based on 40,000 simulations run by his model, that Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College by an average margin of 287.2 electoral votes to Biden’s 250.4.
The model also predicts that Biden is more likely (51%) to win the popular vote, but only by a razor-thin, 47.2%-47.1% margin.
Nate Silver is a bozo!
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