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I don't buy this, but... Elections Guru Nate Silver Gives Trump a 66% Chance of Winning the Election: Not a ‘Toss-Up’
By HatetheSwamp
June 26, 2024 12:35 pm
Category: Media

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Let me start off with two words, I support Biden. I support Biden.

Nate Silver, the elections guru and statistical expert who founded FiveThirtyEight, has come out with his forecasting model for the 2024 presidential election, which suggests that former President and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is favored to beat President Joe Biden in a rematch of their showdown four years ago.

“If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied,” he added. “So if we’re being honest, pundits who obsess over whether Biden is 1 point ahead in national polls are kind of missing the point.”

Eventually, Silver gets around to unveiling his model, which suggests, based on 40,000 simulations run by his model, that Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College by an average margin of 287.2 electoral votes to Biden’s 250.4.
The model also predicts that Biden is more likely (51%) to win the popular vote, but only by a razor-thin, 47.2%-47.1% margin.


Nate Silver is a bozo!


Cited and related links:

  1. mediaite.com



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Comments on "I don't buy this, but... Elections Guru Nate Silver Gives Trump a 66% Chance of Winning the Election: Not a ‘Toss-Up’":

  1. by Curt_Anderson on June 26, 2024 1:16 pm
    If the election were held today, the Nate Silver would probably be right. But a lot could happen before Election Day.

    Still, 66% isn’t a great chance. Two bullets in the chamber of six-shooter aren’t great odds if you are hoping not to blow your brains out playing Russian roulette.


  2. by Indy! on June 26, 2024 1:29 pm

    Who still listens to Nate after his hilariously off target 2016 prediction?


  3. by HatetheSwamp on June 26, 2024 1:45 pm

    Curt,

    And, pb's said this before, your TrumpHate is distinctly hopeful.

    Keep a good thought! The sun'll come out tomorrow...


  4. by Curt_Anderson on June 26, 2024 1:50 pm
    I cannot imagine what you imagine in my comment is Trump-hate. Could it be that as a closeted MAGA-cultist you are hypersensitive to anything that could be construed as criticism of your master?


  5. by HatetheSwamp on June 26, 2024 2:48 pm

    No obvious TrumpHate in this one. But, you ooze hope.


  6. by Indy! on June 26, 2024 2:57 pm
    Curt: Could it be that as a closeted MAGA-cultist you are hypersensitive to anything that could be construed as criticism of your master?


    Truer words were never spoken. 😌


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