Comments posted organically
Health selectors, pages, etc.
To Vax or Not To Vax. What does the Math say?

By Donna
August 11, 2021 12:12 am
Category: Health
(0.0 from 0 votes)
SelectSmart.com    SelectSmart.com    SelectSmart.com

Share
The rules of The Post
How to post in The Post
Rate this article
(5=best, 0=poor)
5 Stars
4 Stars
3 Stars
2 Stars
1 Star
0 Stars

According to the latest report from the CDC, a little over 7,074 Americans between the ages of 30-39 have died from COVID. According to the US Census Bureau, 43 million Americans are between ages 30-39. So the odds of someone in that age bracket dying from COVID is 7,074 / 43,000,000 million or 1 in 6,243 which is .016%.

Those odds decline sharply after that.

According to the CDC, 2,807 Americans under the age of 30 have died from COVID-19. According to the US Census Bureau, 126,760,000 Americans are under the age of 30. That means the odds of anyone in that age bracket dying from COVID is 1 in 45,159 which is .0022%.

According to Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), more than 346 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020 through August 2, 2021, and that during that period, VAERS received 6,490 reports of death (.0019%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. (Keep in mind, though, VAERS accepts reports of any adverse event following any vaccination, and reports of adverse events to VAERS following vaccination, including deaths, do not necessarily mean that a vaccine caused a health problem.)

So the data show that .016% of Americans between the ages of 30 and 39 have died from COVID-19, and an unverified (.0019%) of Americans of who have received a vaccine are reported to have died after receiving a COVID shot.

To repeat:
.016% chance of a 30-39 year old dying from a COVID-19 infection

versus

.0019% chance of dying from a COVID-19 vaccine. (at MOST, because VAERS goes by reports only; there is never a follow-up investigation)

.016 / .0019 = 8.4

The numbers show that for every person who reportedly died after a COVID vax, a little over 8 people aged 30-39 died from a COVID-19 infection.

Unfortunately, the way the CDC and US Census group the age brackets below 30 doesn't match up, so I had to treat everyone from age 1 to 29 as one group.
If you're under 30, your chance of dying from a COVID-19 infection is .0022%. So given that the chance of dying from a COVID-19 vaccine is .0019%, you have a slightly higher risk (1.16 to 1.00) of dying from a COVID infection than dying from a vaccination, and the older you are within that age bracket, the higher the risk there is of dying from a COVID infection.

If you based your decision to refuse the vax on the grounds that it could kill you, then you did the opposite of what the data and the Math say you should have done.

The Math says Get Vaxed.



The views and claims expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views and beliefs of SelectSmart.com. Not every statement made here can be assumed to be a fact.
Comments:

  1. by Donna on August 11, 2021 12:14 am
    Correction: In the first paragraph, "43,000,000 million" should read "43,000,000" (not a million times 43,000,000).


  2. by HatetheSwamp on August 11, 2021 4:37 am

    As you know, I was vaccinated as soon as I could be but y'nes are making a righteous crusade out of the Trump vaccines.

    Here's what I know about the vaccines: once that stuff is in your body, it's there and there's nothing you can do about that. The vaccines still have only Emergency Use approval from the FDA. Prudence about getting vaccinated is reasonable.

    Enough of the righteous fervor. No Christian fundamentalist I've known has ever been as zealous as you are.


  3. by islander on August 11, 2021 7:55 am

    You’ll hear a lot of those who try to sow doubt in people’s minds and/or justify their willful refusal to get vaccinated by claiming “You do know that none of the vaccines have received FDA approval”. But the vaccines have received FDA approval for exactly what they are being used for, and in actual use they are being shown to be safe, and they ARE reducing suffering and saving lives even as we speak.

    ” Here's what I know about the vaccines: once that stuff is in your body, it's there and there's nothing you can do about that.” < HtS

    Sounds exactly like something Trump would say…But continue please…and explain why you think that’s a sensible argument or justification for willfully refusing to get a vaccine that would save that person’s life.


  4. by Donna on August 11, 2021 8:59 am
    It's amusing watching hts sow doubts on the vaccine that he and his wife received. The only thing I can figure is that he's bored to tears today.


  5. by Curt Anderson on August 11, 2021 9:09 am
    It's long known in the medical community that if a vaccine side effects don't appear within about a month, they never will.

    With our many months of real world vaccination testing and experience with millions of shots, the vaccine hesitant can stop their fretting and get the damn shot.


  6. by Donna on August 11, 2021 9:17 am
    I think if you were to construct a Venn Diagram of anti-COVID-vaxxers and people who are in rebellion against the government, the circles would almost completely overlap.


  7. by HatetheSwamp on August 11, 2021 9:40 am

    Gang,

    I'm vaxxed and I have no regrets.

    What vexes me is the extent that, as Donna just did, your side's apparent need to cast aspirations on the intelligence and character of people who are cautious about the vaccine.

    Read 1984. You're in it!

    You're thinking the way fascists think.


  8. by Curt Anderson on August 11, 2021 9:51 am
    HtS,
    An aspersion is a false or misleading charge meant to harm someone's reputation.

    I am not casting aspersions. I am saying not anything that is false or misleading. The unvaccinated are collection of the selfish, the ignorant, the misled, those inflicted with the Dunning–Kruger effect and other pariahs on society.


  9. by HatetheSwamp on August 11, 2021 10:53 am
    The unvaccinated are collection of the selfish, the ignorant, the misled, those inflicted with the Dunning–Kruger effect and other pariahs on society.

    Curt,

    When pressed, you can be such a hater.

    I'm in an email exchange with one of the few anti-vaxxers I know. The guy's 70Something. He and his wife ran an organic food store for much of their lives. They weren't wackos who never went to the doctor but they've always believed that in holistic living. And, honestly, it's probably better to describe him as a wait and seer. Either way, he's not vaccinated.

    What I'll say here is that you are doing what bigots do. Judge an entire group of people by its worst representatives. Right. We know all black men rape white women.


  10. by Curt Anderson on August 11, 2021 11:18 am
    What I'll say here is that you are doing what bigots do. Judge an entire group of people by its worst representatives. Right. We know all black men rape white women. --HtS

    I am not judging people by their color or even political party. My statement is more akin to saying We all know rapists rape people. Unvaccinated people infect people. It's not because they are Trumpers.

    As for your friends, they are obviously not critical thinkers. Why would I be surprised that they are among the vaccine hesitant?

    Tell your friends, that organic food is not more nutritious than conventionally grown food. The usual fertilizer used on organic food is manure which if not treated properly, can contain pathogenic bacteria. If the label says “Organic” it means it’s made with at least 95% organic ingredients. “Made with organic ingredients” it means it’s made with at least 70% organic ingredients. Organic farming is not nearly as productive in yielding crops as conventional farming and it requires more land to produce the same amount of food.
    health.ucdavis.edu
    chemistryworld.com
    ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
    nature.com


  11. by Curt Anderson on August 11, 2021 11:30 am
    Additionally, HtS...
    “Natural Is Better”: How the Appeal To Nature Fallacy Derails Public Health
    behavioralscientist.org


  12. by Donna on August 11, 2021 11:40 am
    Interesting piece. Whole Foods is making a fortune off the Natural craze.


  13. by HatetheSwamp on August 11, 2021 11:49 am

    The unvaccinated are collection of the selfish, the ignorant, the misled, those inflicted with the Dunning–Kruger effect and other pariahs on society.

    That's what you said, Curt. Your thinking about all the unvaxxed is akin to the thinking of Nazis about all Jews and all Kluxers about all blacks.

    As for your friends, they are obviously not critical thinkers. Why would I be surprised that they are among the vaccine hesitant?

    This one rates a bahahahaha, ahhhhhh, Curt.

    Bahahahaha hahahahahaha hoohoohoohoohoohoo hehehehehehehe hahahahahaha hoohoohoohoohoohoo hahahahahaha hehehehehehehe hoohoohoohoohoohoo hahahahahaha, ahhhhhh!

    My buddy is, in fact a careful and deliberate critical thinker who's careful enough not to take the pronouncements of St. Anthony of Fauci as holy writ.

    He, in fact, is the thinker. You, it seems, are a true believer. A believer, and a bigot.

    As someone with nearly a whole lifetime of involvement in institutionalized religion in my rear view mirror, I know what belief looks like. And, more to the point, I know what toxic believing looks like.


  14. by islander on August 11, 2021 12:47 pm

    Why refusing the COVID-19 vaccine isn’t just immoral – it’s ‘un-American’

    Believe it or not pb there are some, a very small minority of people, who cannot get vaccinated for underlying health conditions, usually it’s because they are allergic to one of the ingredients in the vaccine. In that case they should consult with their doctor and we are not criticizing those people. We are critical of those who willfully refuse to get vaccinated because of their willful ignorance and those who intentionally spread disinformation and sow doubts in the minds of those who, because of such false information, really are afraid of getting vaccinated.

    Be like those who are working to dispel the false information pb.

    “But here again, the costs of refusing the vaccine are not borne by the individual alone. Rising case numbers and hospitalizations, renewed restrictions regarding public events, even the emergence of the delta variant itself are happening largely because many millions of Americans chose not to get the vaccine. And for parents of children under 12 who cannot yet receive the vaccine – some of whom are immune compromised – the thought of returning to school this fall with infection rates again climbing no doubt fills them with dread.

    Many would argue that this lack of concern for other people is immoral. The Golden Rule – do unto others as you would have others do unto you — manifests that concern for the well-being of others is at the core of morality. Those who choose not to take the vaccine ignore this concern and therefore act immorally. But, I would argue that their indifference to the welfare of others is not only immoral, it is also un-American.”


    theconversation.com
    cdc.gov


  15. by HatetheSwamp on August 12, 2021 2:52 am

    isle,

    For myself, of course, I agree. I knocked over two old ladies from nursing home part of the retirement community to get to the front of the vax line.

    But, c'mon man, gimme a break! We Americans were " endowed by our Creator with certain inalienable rights." Heck, bubba! We have a Bill of Rights!

    I disagree with most of the people who are still abstaining from being vaxxed. Just like you.

    Still, and I'm not even a full blown libertarian, I am certain that something essential to being the USA would end if the country handled the vaccine the way you want it handled.

    There probably are places in the world where the vaccine requirement is being done in the way you want. I think you'd be happier in one of them.


  16. by islander on August 12, 2021 4:32 am

    ” Still, and I'm not even a full blown libertarian, I am certain that something essential to being the USA would end if the country handled the vaccine the way you want it handled.”

    If you were able, you’d be capable of clearly stating what that “something essential” is and you’d know the way I think the vaccine should be handled…but since you know neither, what you say you are “certain” of is pretty much meaningless therefore irrelevant to this discussion.


  17. by HatetheSwamp on August 12, 2021 5:00 am

    isle,

    I'd hoped that my quotation from the Declaration of Independence and my reference to the Bill of Rights would have made it obvious what the "something essential" is.

    WE ARE A NATION OF PEOPLE WHO BELIEVED IN 1776, EVEN BEFORE OUR GOVERNMENT WAS ESTABLISHED IN 1789, THAT WE ALL POSSESS LIBERTY, WHICH IS OUR BIRTHRIGHT AS PEOPLE CREATED BY GOD!"

    You propose removing from unvaxxed people their God-given liberty. That's essentially anti American.


  18. by islander on August 12, 2021 6:00 am

    ”I'd hoped that my quotation from the Declaration of Independence and my reference to the Bill of Rights would have made it obvious what the "something essential" is.”

    I think you’ve made it pretty clear by now that you don’t really know or understand what those quotes mean.

    ”You propose removing from unvaxxed people their God-given liberty. That's essentially anti American.”

    No. I don’t. With your false assertion, you once again demonstrate that you don’t know what my position is, therefore anything you say about it is meaning less and irrelevant to this discussion.



  19. by HatetheSwamp on August 12, 2021 6:22 am

    With your false assertion, you once again demonstrate that you don’t know what my position is, therefore anything you say about it is meaning less and irrelevant to this discussion.

    Fair enough. Please clarify.


  20. by islander on August 12, 2021 7:00 am

    please clarify,

    I’ll give you an example, a restaurant owner under the laws of our country, has the right to require a person to wear shoes and a shirt in order to eat in his restaurant. The restaurant owner is not depriving the person of any, to use your term, “God given rights”. Same goes for vaccines during a pandemic, the restaurant owner can mandate shoes, a shirt, and that the customer must be vaccinated in order to eat in his restaurant.


  21. by HatetheSwamp on August 12, 2021 7:21 am

    Agreed, isle.

    This is a case where two citizens' God-given rights bring them at odds with each other.

    I don't have a right to force you to serve me in your restaurant not wearing shoes, or a mask. I can either eat down the street where there's no shoe, or mask mandate, eat at home, or go hungry.


  22. by islander on August 12, 2021 7:34 am

    “God given rights”

    When words are imprecise so too is thought.



  23. by HatetheSwamp on August 12, 2021 8:04 am


    “God given rights”

    When words are imprecise so too is thought. -isle


    I think that you have to blame Jefferson, and all of the signers of the Declaration of Independence for building the nation on the notion that we are "endowed by our Creator with certain inalienable rights..."

    It wasn't my idea.

    I must admit that the fact that they cited the divine origin of human rights is a curiosity but the Deists among them were passionately devoted to that belief and, of course, among the larger group of signers there were Christians.

    The historical truth is that, from July 4, 1776, our nation was founded on the notion that every citizen possesses Rights that can't be taken away from them because those rights are theirs because God created them.


  24. by islander on August 12, 2021 11:17 am

    ”This is a case where two citizens' God-given rights bring them at odds with each other.”

    So who decides whether something is a “God given right” and where do I go to see the authorized list?

    From your explanation, the restaurant owner has a God given right to mandate shoes, shirts, a mask, or proof of a Covid vaccination. But everybody has a God given right to walk in and eat at his restaurant with no shoes, shirt, and be unvaccinated.

    Perhaps you fail to see how contradictory and nonsensical it to assert that each one’s God given right is at odds with the other person’s? I hope you can now see how imprecise a term like “God given right” is.



  25. by HatetheSwamp on August 12, 2021 11:31 am

    From your explanation, the restaurant owner has a God given right to mandate shoes, shirts, a mask, or proof of a Covid vaccination. But everybody has a God given right to walk in and eat at his restaurant with no shoes, shirt, and be unvaccinated.

    isle,

    You need to reread my comment. This is precisely what I did not say.

    ...who decides whether something is a “God given right” and where do I go to see the authorized list?

    There is no comprehensive list, however, you may consult Supreme Court decisions for ample guidance.


  26. by islander on August 12, 2021 12:05 pm

    ”You need to reread my comment. This is precisely what I did not say.”

    You apparently forgot the context. We were discussing the rights of the restaurant owner to mandate restrictions with regard to the customer’s right to eat at his restaurant. And you responded with,

    “This is a case where two citizens' God-given rights bring them at odds with each other.”

    The customer’s right to find another restaurant is NOT at odds with the restaurant owner’s right to mandate restrictions and it was never implied that it was. Perhaps you meant to say something else rather than that their rights were at odds with each other?

    ”There is no comprehensive list, however, you may consult Supreme Court decisions for ample guidance.”

    And that’s exactly what I do. You have not given a single example of anything in my position that violates our legal rights based on the Supreme Court decisions.

    Can you explain what you are arguing with me about and why?




  27. by HatetheSwamp on August 12, 2021 12:37 pm

    You apparently forgot the context. We were discussing the rights of the restaurant owner to mandate restrictions with regard to the customer’s right to eat at his restaurant. And you responded with,

    “This is a case where two citizens' God-given rights bring them at odds with each other.”

    The customer’s right to find another restaurant is NOT at odds with the restaurant owner’s right to mandate restrictions and it was never implied that it was. Perhaps you meant to say something else rather than that their rights were at odds with each other?

    I agreed with you, isle. Sheeeeeeeesh! I hope you're not married!

    Can you explain what you are arguing with me about and why?

    isle,

    I've been agreeing with you for several posts. I think that you need to splain what YOU are so exorcised about.


  28. by islander on August 12, 2021 1:18 pm
    ” I think that you need to splain what YOU are so exorcised about.”

    Me !!! Exorcised ??? LoL !!

    Look over at the Topics list and the responses! I think you’ll quickly come to realize that it’s your name that is all over the place!



  29. by HatetheSwamp on August 12, 2021 1:21 pm

    All of that notwithstanding, I agree with you about the restaurant.




Cookies Consent Policy & Privacy Statement. All Rights Reserved. SelectSmart® is a registered trademark. | Contact SelectSmart.com | Advertise on SelectSmart.com | This site is for sale!

Find old posts & articles

SelectSmart.com

Report spam & abuse
SelectSmart.com home page


From our contributors:
Display Order:
Time for a national divorce?
Politics by Donna     October 24, 2021 6:01 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by HatetheSwamp (13 comments) [392 views]


I LOVE LUCY: BidenCheatElectiomin--a TV classic
Entertainment by HatetheSwamp     October 25, 2021 12:18 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [52 views]


BLM and Trump supporters join in anto vax protest for Kyrie Irving
Health by HatetheSwamp     October 25, 2021 10:23 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by HatetheSwamp (2 comments) [65 views]


Bannon Caught Fleeing US Disguised As Man Who Recently Took Shower
Humor by Donna     October 24, 2021 8:48 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by Curt_Anderson (1 comments) [114 views]


It's very tough to be a Trump supporter.
Politics by Curt_Anderson     October 24, 2021 4:13 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by Donna (1 comments) [74 views]


California residents sound alarm over port backlog as shipping containers overflow into neighborhoods
Business by HatetheSwamp     October 22, 2021 5:11 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by islander (31 comments) [552 views]


Rudy Giuliani says Fox is playing a fascist game.
Politics by Curt_Anderson     October 24, 2021 2:13 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [27 views]


CNN is already trashing Trump backed candidates in GOP Primaries
Media by HatetheSwamp     October 24, 2021 11:22 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by HatetheSwamp (2 comments) [58 views]


Biden's critics hurl increasingly vulgar taunts
Politics by HatetheSwamp     October 23, 2021 2:45 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by HatetheSwamp (11 comments) [117 views]


Stupid is not a protected class. Let's never allow it to be one.
Personality by Curt_Anderson     October 24, 2021 11:26 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [14 views]


SNL tackles Joe Biden
Politics by HatetheSwamp     October 24, 2021 6:32 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [17 views]


GOP congressman ends floor speech with 'Let's go, Brandon'
Government by HatetheSwamp     October 24, 2021 5:25 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [26 views]


Trumpublicans were right. There were examples of voter fraud...perpetrated by Trump voters.
Politics by Curt_Anderson     October 22, 2021 8:54 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by islander (5 comments) [169 views]


Calls Grow for Loudoun County School Officials to Resign After 2 Sexual Assaults Tied to Trans Bathroom Policy
Education by HatetheSwamp     October 23, 2021 8:03 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by HatetheSwamp (27 comments) [410 views]


Even 538: Biden's DIS-approval over 50%. Under water by over 7.
Politics by HatetheSwamp     October 23, 2021 1:43 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by HatetheSwamp (4 comments) [65 views]


The gun Alec Baldwin was handed was said to be a "cold gun"
Movies by Curt_Anderson     October 23, 2021 9:15 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by Donna (8 comments) [87 views]


Clouseau busted trying to strong arm DOJ into going after January 6 crowd
Government by HatetheSwamp     October 22, 2021 2:53 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by HatetheSwamp (2 comments) [155 views]


Lev Parnas, Ex-Giuliani Ally, Is Convicted of Campaign Finance Charges
Crime by Curt_Anderson     October 22, 2021 1:24 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [56 views]


The NY Times explains the global supply chain problems.
Business by Curt_Anderson     October 22, 2021 12:14 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by Donna (1 comments) [35 views]


Biden Says He Doesn’t See Votes to Raise Tax Rates in Deal
Politics by HatetheSwamp     October 22, 2021 7:39 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [26 views]


Facebook is reportedly changing its name
Business by Curt_Anderson     October 21, 2021 1:41 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [252 views]


Trumpery
Humor by Donna     October 20, 2021 9:36 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by Curt_Anderson (2 comments) [308 views]


Betty Lynn, Thelma Lou on ‘The Andy Griffith Show,’ Dies at 95
Television by Curt_Anderson     October 20, 2021 11:42 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by Donna (1 comments) [85 views]


"F Joe Biden" chant rocks baseball playoffs. Fox complicit.
Sports by HatetheSwamp     October 20, 2021 2:25 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [161 views]


‘People Are Hoarding’: Food Shortages Are The Next Supply-Chain Crunch
Food & Beverages by HatetheSwamp     October 19, 2021 3:37 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by Curt_Anderson (5 comments) [326 views]


RCP: Biden's DIS-approval hits new low
Politics by HatetheSwamp     October 20, 2021 7:12 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by Curt_Anderson (1 comments) [77 views]


Terry McAuliffe stomps out of TV interview. Is it possible he can lose VA Governor race?
Politics by HatetheSwamp     October 20, 2021 4:14 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [70 views]


'Let's Go Brandon!' goes from social media meme to the top of the iTunes charts
Entertainment by HatetheSwamp     October 19, 2021 2:04 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by HatetheSwamp (2 comments) [52 views]


Washington State coach Nick Rolovich, four assistants fired for cause over COVID-19 vaccine mandate
Sports by HatetheSwamp     October 19, 2021 5:19 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by HatetheSwamp (6 comments) [135 views]


Fully vaccinated Colin Powell, great American, dies from COVID at 84
Medical by HatetheSwamp     October 18, 2021 5:17 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by HatetheSwamp (10 comments) [397 views]