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pb's final 022 election prediction

By HatetheSwamp
November 7, 2022 9:02 am
Category: Politics

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Tomorrow's the big day.

Lots of election jabber on cable news and the Sunday shows. pb's sense is that the Dem SwampMedia is more certain in predicting a Red Wave than the GOP SwampMedia.

pb's been spending time with the polls and RCP and 538 and Cook and some local media here.

Will this be a wave election? pb says that it depends on the definition. Back in 018, on the old forum, we debated whether the Dem victory was a wave election. In the House, the Dems gained 41 seats. All the Libs here said that, yeah, it was a wave. pb said that it wasn't a wave because the GOPs tripled the side of its majority in the Senate.


pb's prediction: Tomorrow will be a good day for the GOPs but not historically so.

My personal definition of a sound majority in the House is when the minority has fewer than 200 seats. And, that's what pb's calling for.

HOUSE: 236-199 GOP. That's actually down two GOPs from last week.

As far as the Senate is concerned?

pb likes the way RCP breaks it down. RCP has it 48-44 GOP with 8 tossups.

The 8 tossups are:

AZ
CO
GA
NH
NV
PA
WA
WI

pb gives Georgia and Nevada and Wisconsin to the GOPs. He gives Colorado and Washington and (Pennsylvania, with the cheating) to the Dems. He can see New Hampshire and Arizona going either way...but he'll give them to the Dems. That leaves the GOPs at 51.

So:
HOUSE: 236-199 GOP
SENATE: 51-49 GOP


Is that a Red Wave? No.

Having said that. pb thinks a true Red Wave is more likely than a Dem victory in either house.

One piece of trivia. "That feckless dementia-ridden piece of crap" is the least popular President in the history of polling by the time of his first midterm election...

...almost a whole point lower than OrangeMan...

...and we know how it went for the GOP in the House in 018.


Cited and related links:

  1. projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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Comments on "pb's final 022 election prediction ":

  1. by HatetheSwamp on November 7, 2022 9:28 am

    FYI, the Trafalgar Poll, which Curt reveres, just released its final Georgia poll. It has Walker at 49.7 with 1.7 undecided. As unlikely as it once seemed, ol Hersch may avoid a runoff.
    thetrafalgargroup.org


  2. by HatetheSwamp on November 7, 2022 10:14 am

    From the Guy Curt never heard of:

    My 'average' (and therefore best) guess is that Republicans end up with around 235 House seats, gain one net governorship, and ultimately control 51 Senate seats (one plausible scenario is winning NV and GA, but dropping PA). The pessimistic end of my spectrum would put Republicans at around 224 House seats and 50 Senate seats, technically stuck in the upper chamber minority. And my upside optimistic picks, which feel increasingly likely, would have the House GOP pushing 245 seats, and Mitch McConnell leading a 53-seat majority (R's hold all current seats, plus win NV/GA/AZ or NH) when all is said and done.

    Remarkably similar to pb's.

    townhall.com


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