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538: Republicans now favored the win the Senate
By HatetheSwamp
November 1, 2022 9:49 am
Category: Politics

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Two realities:

1. This is a trend that has been building. In the middle of September, 538 gave Dems a 73% chance of holding the Senate. Now, with a week to go, the 538's probability is actually predicting that the GOP will win at least 51 seats. Just a week ago, Dems were still at 54% chance to hold the Senate. By the time the election happens, still a week away, it's hard to guess how well things will look for the GOP.

2. 538 exaggerates the fortunes of the Dems. That's a fact. 538 is good but not perfect. And, it's imperfect in favor of Dems. In 020, as I've noted earlier, 538 projected that the Dems would take the House 239-196. 538 was off by 17 in the Dems' favor. The actual result was 222-213.

For the moment, pb holds to his prediction that the GOP takes the House 238-197 and the Senate 51-49. But, it's looking much worse for the Dems...even with the cheating. Bahahahahahahahahahaha.


Cited and related links:

  1. projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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