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The Generic Ballot: the most unabashedly biased ploy by Dem Swampcult pollsters
By HatetheSwamp
October 17, 2022 3:49 am
Category: Media

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Curt notes that the Dems are +3 in the Fox News generic ballot. Actually, though, as of the morning of the October 17, GOPs are +1.6 at RCP.

Curiously, the Fox News Poll skews Dem. It always has. Rush used to moan and groan every time a FNC poll was released. Shannon Bream noted yesterday on Fox News Sunday that the +3 is of Registered Voted but that Likely Voters in their poll had GOPs +1...

However...

...in 020...

THE RCP GENERIC BALLOT HAD THE DEMS +6.8...

...AND THE GOP PICKED UP 15 SEATS!!!!!


Cited and related links:

  1. realclearpolitics.com

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Comments on "The Generic Ballot: the most unabashedly biased ploy by Dem Swampcult pollsters ":

  1. by Curt_Anderson on October 17, 2022 10:36 am
    When you say biased, are you suggesting that the polls have some sort bias built in to the questions or that they disproportionately poll more Democrats?

    It's not a fault with the polling, but it's a fault in our system of representation. You know that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.9 million votes but lost in the Electoral College. For the Democrats to win 50% of the seats in Congress, they need to win about 55% of the popular vote. See chart linked below.

    You pointed out that RCP polling aggregate had Democrats up by 6.8% yet the GOP gained 15 seats, a 3.4% increase. That more or less illustrates the need to for the Democrats to overperform just to break even.

    Maybe the reports of poll numbers should provide an explanation of that misrepresentation.


  2. by HatetheSwamp on October 17, 2022 10:58 am

    There are several factors here.

    One is that GOPs are far more effective in winning elections for governor and state legislature so that they have a greater control over gerrymandering.

    Another is the reality that this is a republic in which representation in the Senate is by states.

    One reason GOPs normally don't squawk too loudly about Dem cheating is that much of it takes place in large blue states...California, New York, Illinois. Dems run up huuuuuuuuuge majorities statewide in those places.

    I remember pointing, out in 016, apart from the big blue states, Trump had a significant popular majority.

    Bottom line, though. If the generic ballot polls have Dems +3 in 022, the GOPs will win the House comfortably...and, probably, the Senate, too.


  3. by Curt_Anderson on October 17, 2022 11:14 am
    It's less likely that the Republicans will win the Senate even given their disproportionate advantage. The GOP has to protect 21 Senate seats while the Democrats only have 14 seats up for grabs.
    en.wikipedia.org


  4. by HatetheSwamp on October 17, 2022 11:35 am

    Yeah, pb's been saying that all along. GOPs'll have to go 22-13 or better to take the Senate. If they'll ever be able to do that, it'll be in the year that the Former Truck Driver is out there campaigning with Dem Senate candidates.


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