by Donna on June 25, 2022 9:47 am
"Why would there be an decrease on this chart?" - od
I dunno. Let's take a look at one example, Kansas City, MO.
You posted:
Missouri - Dim mayor KC #17, up 45%
I posted:
Missouri - Dim mayor KC #17, down 52%
Here's what the chart says:
(All Homicide numbers listed are per 100,000 residents)
Rank/City/Tot Score/Homicides Q1 2022/Change ('22 vs '21)/Change ('22 vs '20)
17 / KC / 44.91 / 8.96 / -2.44 / -4.68
So from the numbers on the chart:
In Q1 2022, the homicide rate in KC was 8.96 per 100,000 residents.
That was down by 2.44 from Q1 2021
That was down by 4.68 from Q1 2020.
So I should have said -34%, not -52%.
It certainly didn't increase by 45%, as you said. 45 is the Total Score, not the percentage increase.
***
12 of the 50 cities listed showed decreases in homicides from 2020 to 2022, most of them slight. 38 of the 50 cities listed showed increases, most of them slight also.
Here's what the website said about Total Score, which you confused with percent increase in homocides:
Methodology
In order to assess the changes in homicides across cities, we calculated the number of homicides per capita in Q1 2022 and the change in the number of homicides per capita in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021 and 2020.
In determining our sample, we included 50 of the most populated U.S. cities that had locally published homicide data available for our specific time period. We used the UCR definition for criminal homicide. Data from this study is based in some cases on preliminary police department crime data, which is subject to reclassification upon further investigation.
The metrics used are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the highest homicide rates.
We then determined the weighted average across all metrics to calculate an overall score for each city and used the resulting scores to rank-order the cities.
Homicides per Capita in Q1 2022: Double Weight (~50.00 Points)
Change in Homicides (Q1 2022 vs. Q1 2021): Full Weight (~25.00 Points)
Note: This is the absolute difference in the homicide rate per capita.
Change in Homicides (Q1 2022 vs. Q1 2020): Full Weight (~25.00 Points)
Note: This is the absolute difference in the homicide rate per capita.
***
That's a very vague explanation. Not saying it's wrong, but it's impossible to tell from that explanation how they arrived at their Total Scores and rankings.
by oldedude on June 25, 2022 10:04 am
Again, Argue with those that put out the study. I'm sure they'll see exactly what you're talking about and make the correction. Since they have no clue what they're talking about.
by Donna on June 25, 2022 10:36 am
I wouldn't know what to argue. They don't provide enough info on the methodology they used. It isn't important enough to me to follow up on though.
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