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pb's waaaaaaaaaay too early 022 election forecast

By HatetheSwamp
May 2, 2022 1:30 pm
Category: Government

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It's waaaaaaaaaay, waaaaaaaaaay, way too early but, since 010, pb has been forecasting midterm election results.

pb's always done pretty well. He's always predicted accurately which party will prevail and, normally he's within 4
3 or 4 House seats and within 1 in the Senate.

Anyway, waaaaaaaaaay too early?, pb predicts that the GOPs will pick up 32 House seats. That's, from a GOP perspective, pretty conservative. Gutfeld, for instance, has said that if the GOPs don't pick up at least 70 seats, their leadership should be run out of town. pb thinks that's crazy.

Over the weekend, NPR released a poll that has GOPs leading in the generic poll by 3. That's a poll of Registered voters, not likely voters, and several polls show that GOPs have a huuuuuuuuuge enthusiasm gap among Registered voters.

pb thinks, before primaries are settled, 32 seats in the House is reasonable.

In the Senate?, News Flash: pb is calling for a wash, i.e., GOPs and Dems break even.

As I understand it, there are 35 Senate elections this year. (See link) 21 GOPs seats are at risk. This will undoubtedly be a good year for GOPs, but if GOPs win 70% of the races, they break even. That seems like a reasonable early prognostication in a strong GOP year. So, waaaaaaaaaay too early, pb say that you should look for another 50, 50 Senate.


Cited and related links:

  1. en.m.wikipedia.org

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Comments on "pb's waaaaaaaaaay too early 022 election forecast ":

  1. by Curt_Anderson on May 2, 2022 2:01 pm
    Unless something changes between now and next November, I'd give the GOP the edge in the House and Senate. The numerical difference hardly matters.


  2. by HatetheSwamp on May 2, 2022 2:10 pm

    You're right. Speaker of the House, Leader of the Senate is pret'near everything.


  3. by Curt_Anderson on May 2, 2022 2:50 pm
    It'll be pretty much of a stalemate as it is now. Unless one party controls the White House, the House and 60 Senate seats not much can be accomplished.


  4. by Donna on May 2, 2022 5:38 pm
    And in the case of the Democrats, even when they control both houses of Congress and the White House, they get very little done.


  5. by Curt_Anderson on May 2, 2022 6:02 pm
    Donna,
    The last time the Democrats controlled the House, the Senate and White House was Obama's first two years as president. That was the 111th Congress. Here's what it accomplished:

    ECONOMIC RECOVERY & CREATING JOBS
    AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT, enacted in the first month of President Obama’s term, to jumpstart our economy, create and save 3.5 million jobs, give 98% of American workers a tax cut, and begin to rebuild America’s road, rail, and water infrastructure, with
    unprecedented accountability. (Signed into Law)
    DEMOCRATIC PRIORITIES IN TAX RELIEF & UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE ACT, a
    controversial Obama-GOP agreement that includes Democratic priorities to create jobs and promote recovery, including cutting taxes for the middle class and small businesses for the next 2 years; providing a $120 billion payroll tax reduction for workers; and extending unemployment insurance for 13 months. (Signed into Law)
    SMALL BUSINESS TAX CUTS, landmark legislation providing 17 small business tax cuts, including the Small Business Jobs Act, which created up to 500,000 jobs, by leveraging up to $300 billion in private sector lending for small businesses through a lending fund for community
    banks; fully paid for. Additionally, Pelosi secured the House passage of the HIRE ACT, creating 300,000 jobs with tax incentives for businesses hiring unemployed Americans and to spur small
    business investment, and unleashing investments to rebuild infrastructure. (Signed into Law)
    TEACHER JOBS/STATE AID/CLOSING TAX LOOPHOLES, creating and saving about 319,000 jobs – saving 161,000 teacher jobs and providing state aid that will create and save another 158,000 jobs; fully paid for by closing loopholes that encourage companies to ship American jobs overseas. (Signed into Law)
    STUDENT AID & FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY ACT, making the largest investment in college aid in history – increasing Pell Grants, making college loans more affordable, and strengthening
    community colleges – while reducing the federal deficit by ending wasteful student loan subsidies to banks. (Signed into Law)
    CASH FOR CLUNKERS, jump-starting the U.S. auto industry, with consumer incentives for trading in an old vehicle for one with higher fuel efficiency—spurring the sale of 700,000 vehicles. (Signed into Law)
    AFFORDABLE QUALITY HEALTH CARE
    HEALTH INSURANCE REFORM, landmark legislation prohibiting insurance companies from discriminating against Americans with pre-existing conditions and dropping coverage whenyou get sick and need it most; making coverage
    affordable for families and small businesses;
    strengthening Medicare; creating up to 4 million jobs; reducing the deficit; and extending needy children to nutrition programs. (Signed into Law)
    HEALTH CARE FOR 11 MILLION CHILDREN, providing cost-effective health coverage for 4 million more children and preserving coverage for 7 million children already enrolled. (Signed into Law)
    FDA REGULATION OF TOBACCO, manufacturing and marketing, especially to children. (Signed into Law)
    CLEAN ENERGY JOBS/HOLDING BP ACCOUNTABLE
    AMERICAN CLEAN ENERGY & SECURITY ACT, historic legislation to create millions of American jobs; reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil; cut carbon pollution; keep costs low for Americans. (Passed by House)
    RESPONSE TO BP OIL SPILL, eliminates $75 million cap on liability of oil companies; restores
    Gulf Coast and protects local residents; toughens oversight and safety requirements on offshore
    drilling. (Passed by House)
    FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY & GOVERNMENT REFORM
    BUDGET BLUEPRINT, creating jobs with investments in health care, clean energy and education; cutting taxes for most Americans by $1.5 trillion; cutting Bush deficit by more than
    half by 2013. (Action Completed)
    STATUTORY PAY-AS-YOU-GO, restoring 1990s law that turned record deficits into surpluses. (Signed into Law)
    WEAPONS ACQUISITION REFORM, cracking down on Pentagon waste and cost overruns.
    (Signed into Law)
    DISCLOSE ACT, to fight a corporate takeover of our elections, requires them to disclose they are
    behind political ads; bans foreign-controlled corporations from putting money in U.S. elections. (Passed by House)
    PROTECTING CONSUMERS
    WALL STREET REFORM, historic reforms to end taxpayer-funded bailouts and the idea of ‘too big to fail’, and empower consumers to make best decisions on homes, credit cards, and financial future. (Signed into Law)
    FOOD SAFETY, an overhaul of food safety system in wake of tainted food scandals, putting a new focus on prevention of food contamination and accelerating the response to outbreaks. (Signed into Law)
    CREDIT CARDHOLDERS’ BILL OF RIGHTS, banning unfair rate hikes, abusive fees/ penalties. (Signed into Law)
    LILLY LEDBETTER FAIR PAY, restoring rights of women and others to challenge unfair pay. (Signed into Law)
    NATIONAL SECURITY/TROOPS & VETERANS
    VETERANS HEALTH CARE BUDGET REFORM & TRANSPARENCY ACT, ensuring reliable and
    timely veterans health care funding by authorizing Congress to approve VA medical care a year in advance. (Signed into Law)
    FY 2010 DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION, authorizing 3.4% troop pay raise, strengthening military readiness and military families’ support, focusing our strategy in Afghanistan and redeployment from Iraq. (Signed into Law)
    REPEAL OF DON’T ASK, DON’T TELL, to provide for the repeal of this outdated policy, contingent on the certification that military review completed and repeal will not impact readiness. (Signed into Law)
    CAREGIVERS & VETERANS OMNIBUS HEALTH SERVICES, landmark legislation providing
    help to caregivers of disabled, ill or injured veterans, and improving VA health care services for women veterans. (Signed into Law)


  6. by Donna on May 2, 2022 6:12 pm
    The Democrats have controlled both houses of Congress and the White House for since Biden was sworn in.


  7. by Donna on May 2, 2022 6:20 pm
    But point taken. I admit I was a bit hard on the Dems.


  8. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 4:21 am

    Much of what Curt's listed is minor and much of it might have been passed even if government was divided.

    But, Dems did pass OCare in 010 and, when Bubba was President and had Congress before the red wave in 94, he passed a big tax cut.


  9. by Curt_Anderson on May 3, 2022 8:43 am
    I wrote in comment number one that the Republicans have the edge unless something happens. Something happened. Nothing animates voters more than having a right taken away.


  10. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 9:07 am

    Thing is, things won't change for people in Oregon, or California or New York or New England...or any other blue state. Abortions will he free by the dozen.

    People in Alabama and Mississippi and Texas are opposed anyway.

    In Pennsylvania the pro life gang is large and well organized. My guess here is that pro life people will have an advantage.


  11. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 10:36 am

    Nothing animates voters more than having a right taken away.

    Curt,

    It took a while for your, extremely ironic, comment to sink in.

    You supported Big Brother during the pandemic at every turn. How many times, do you suppose, pb typed, "Bill of Rights" and "individual liberty" during the pandemic only for you to remind me that rights are not absolute?

    So, yup, I do know something about being animated by having rights swiped.

    The thing about what happens when my side's side wins at the Supreme Court is that liberty is increased. This decision will not make abortion illegal. It will require that abortion law be the work of the people's legislators.

    Abortion was foisted on America by the Court all those years ago. All that would happen, if this is the decision, is that abortion will be de-foisted.

    Very effin American.


  12. by Donna on May 3, 2022 10:40 am
    No one ever forced a woman to have an abortion. The Supreme Court apparently is going to take that choice away.


  13. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 10:44 am

    I'm not following you, Donna. How would this decision take the choice away?


  14. by Donna on May 3, 2022 10:49 am
    The Supreme Court is going to make a decision that has absolutely no impact on anyone. Women can now choose to get an abortion just like they always could.

    Is that what you're saying?


  15. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 10:54 am

    As I read the opinion, it's saying that no right to abortion can be found in the Constitution and that the regulation of abortion is a matter for the states to settle.

    That's what I'm saying.


  16. by Curt_Anderson on May 3, 2022 11:16 am
    The Constitution doesn't comment on marriage, certainly not same-sex marriage. The Constitution also doesn't talk about vaccines or pandemics or television or computers or automobiles. We are not obliged to live by 18th century America standards.

    This Supreme Court could undo the decision that allows same-sex marriage in every state.

    This country works best when rights are universal. It would be a travesty if Donna and Ponderer's legal in California marriage became illegal in Arizona, for example.

    Mississippi makes no exception for rape or incest in the abortion prohibition. More draconian laws are coming down the pike. Even in Texas 80% of those polled believe there should be an exception for rape and incest. Most Americans who offered an opinion to pollsters say they are pro-choice.

    Here are the countries where abortion is illegal. Trump had memorable description for most of them:
    Andorra
    Aruba
    Congo
    Curaçao
    Dominican Republic
    Egypt
    El Salvador
    Haiti
    Honduras
    Iraq
    Jamaica
    Laos
    Madagascar
    Malta
    Mauritania
    Nicaragua
    Palau
    Philippines
    San Marino
    Senegal
    poll.qu.edu


  17. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 11:57 am

    True, indeed, Curt.

    Also true is the fact that virtually all of what pleases liberals that is reality in America was foisted on citizens but aggressive judges.

    I had thought to ask if it's reasonable to think that SSM might be the next to fall.

    I told Donna and po long ago that SSM would become law here only if it was forced on the nation by courts. I was right.

    You Blue MAGA progressives claim to love Democracy...

    ...but, you don't.


  18. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 12:07 pm

    Here are the countries where abortion is illegal. Trump had memorable description for most of them:

    Bahahahahahahahahahaha.

    Somehow your mind always goes immediately to Trump.

    Trump Trump Trump Trump
    Trump Trump Trump Trump
    Trump Trump Trump Trump...TRUMP!

    Bahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahaha hoohoohoohoohoohoohoo heeheeheeheeheeheehee hahahahahahahahaha hoohoohoohoohoohoohoo hahahahahahahahaha hoohoohoohoohoohoohoo hahahahahahahahaha heeheeheeheeheeheehee hahahahahahahahaha, ahhhhhhhhhhh!

    I'm so glad that man doesn't live in my head!

    Bahahahahahahahahahaha, ahhhhhhhhhhh.


  19. by Donna on May 3, 2022 1:25 pm

    The Supreme Court apparently is about to wash their hands on abortion and allow the states to become Big Brother on a woman's right to choose.

    And yes, same-sex marriage could be next.

    Liberty Shmiberty. The loudest voices in the Christian community have become the American Taliban.




  20. by Donna on May 3, 2022 1:33 pm
    And btw, if SSM is ever abolished in AZ, Sheri and I won't be affected because our marriage is technically heterosexual. We got married before same-sex marriage was legal. We were able to do that because I'm post-op and Sheri is pre-op. Our "heterosexual" marriage is a testament to how stupid it is to restrict marriage to opposite sex couples.


  21. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 1:34 pm

    The loudest voices in the Christian community have become the American Taliban.

    Poetic.

    What's it mean?


  22. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 1:47 pm

    ...how stupid it is to restrict marriage to opposite sex couples.

    Do you think it's stupid to restrict marriage to couples at all?



  23. by Curt_Anderson on May 3, 2022 3:00 pm
    "Do you think it's stupid to restrict marriage to couples at all?" --HtS

    Are they all consenting adults?


  24. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 3:07 pm

    So, we could declare the, say, New York Mets married?


  25. by Curt_Anderson on May 3, 2022 3:13 pm
    If they all consent and aren't currently married to others, why not? They already have the diamond for the engagement.


  26. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 3:19 pm

    How could it possibly whether they're already married.


  27. by Curt_Anderson on May 3, 2022 3:23 pm
    😕 Not sure what you are asking.


  28. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 3:23 pm

    Oh, and BTW, Re: Diamond. Bahahahahahahahahahaha. Good'ne


  29. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 3:26 pm

    A major league team has a 40 "man" roster. So, the Mets are already marrying 39 other people. So, how could it matter if there are already other spouses?


  30. by Curt_Anderson on May 3, 2022 3:31 pm
    Only because the other, previous spouses may have thought they had twofer marriage and won't necessarily agree to marrying an entire team.

    Btw, don't nuns marry Christ?


  31. by HatetheSwamp on May 3, 2022 3:45 pm

    I think we're illustrating how absurd your side's thinking about marriage is.


  32. by Donna on May 3, 2022 4:18 pm
    I'm with Curt. We aren't planning on getting married, though.

    Funny one about having the diamond, Curt!

    We'll at least Hts didn't remark "Why not allow animals to get married?" as I've heard more than one ignoramus opposed to same-sex marriage remark.

    But yeah, like Curt, I'm in favor of allowing any human beings to marry, in any quantities. Latter Day Saints used to permit men to marry multiple women. Maybe they still do.

    I don't understand why anyone would want to marry multiple people, though. That sounds like trouble to me.

    Going the opposite direction of Hts, why not restrict marriage to Whites? Christians? Republicans? Trump enthusiasts? Why stop at one man and one woman?

    Btw, when Sheri and I got married at the courthouse, we video taped the whole thing. One clerk who attempted to disallow us to marry was so befuddled that she had someone else take over. Someone there (maybe it was the same woman) insisted that Sheri change into men's clothing! Of course they had no legal grounds to stop us from marrying or making up silly requirements.


  33. by Curt_Anderson on May 3, 2022 5:04 pm
    Donna,
    HtS thinks we are absurd in our liberal views on what constitutes a marriage but he was in the one who comes up with the most extreme and absurd scenarios. I am confident that the Mets don't have any plans for a group marriage; if they did the NY Post would have reported it by now if they did.

    I just saw a headline that polygamist Warren Jeffs’ son said his dad had more than one 12-year-old wife. Obviously 12 is not old enough to give an informed adult consent. I believe some states allow 12 years old and I know 14 is old enough to marry in some states, marry that is into presumably a two partner marriage. That's problematic. I bet the divorce rate is higher for every year under 25 that people enter in marriage.

    Thanks guys. I couldn't resist the corny diamond joke.


  34. by HatetheSwamp on May 4, 2022 3:35 am

    Whoa, pb was merely making an example out of Curt's definition: "Are they all consenting adults?"


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