Trump is behind in the polls. Does he really have an enthusiasm edge over Biden?
By Curt Anderson August 10, 2020 10:59 am Category: Politics
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When pollsters asked voters about their enthusiasm they got this response, which appears to favor Trump:
But that advantage disappears when questions about their prospects for voting are asked in more neutral terms:
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who was Mitt Romney’s pollster in 2012, was asked about gaps in voter enthusiasm...the Romney campaign had "the same type of enthusiasm gap" favoring Romney in 2012, "and sadly I learned that unenthusiastic votes count just as much as enthusiastic ones."
Michael Tesler, an associate professor of political science at University of California Irvine, wrote,"while Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they're very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don't despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, according to survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the share of Trump voters who rate Biden unfavorably is consistently much lower than the share of Biden voters who rate Trump negatively — nearly 30 percentage points lower as of the last survey conducted at the end of June."
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When pollsters asked voters about their enthusiasm they got this response, which appears to favor Trump:
