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According to Frank Luntz, pb is young at heart and ahead of his time
Politics by HatetheSwamp     April 20, 2024 12:52 pm (Rating: 0.0) Last comment by: Curt_Anderson (1 comments) [111 views]


House passes HR 8035...$60 Billion Ukraine Aid Package
Government by HatetheSwamp     April 20, 2024 11:15 am (Rating: 0.0) Last comment by: HatetheSwamp (2 comments) [36 views]


Israel has carried out a strike inside Iran, US official tells CNN, as region braces for further escalation
Military by HatetheSwamp     April 19, 2024 3:31 am (Rating: 0.0) Last comment by: oldedude (2 comments) [320 views]


How Joe Biden cajoled and courted Mike Johnson to have a chance to deliver aid to Ukraine
President by Curt_Anderson     April 19, 2024 9:28 pm (Rating: 0.0) Last comment by: HatetheSwamp (4 comments) [98 views]


Politifact finally gets one right...
President by HatetheSwamp     April 19, 2024 1:39 pm (Rating: 0.0) Last comment by: HatetheSwamp (1 comments) [161 views]


Speaker Johnson moves forward with foreign aid package, even if it risks his job
Politics by Curt_Anderson     April 18, 2024 5:29 pm (Rating: 0.0) Last comment by: oldedude (19 comments) [705 views]


Man sets himself on fire outside Trump’s ‘hush money’ trial in NYC
Humor by HatetheSwamp     April 19, 2024 12:02 pm (Rating: 0.0) Last comment by: Indy! (4 comments) [60 views]


Preoccupied Trump too busy to browbeat Mike Johnson into withholding military aid from our allies.
Politics by Curt_Anderson     April 19, 2024 12:01 pm (Rating: 0.0) Last comment by: (0 comments) [13 views]


NPR under fire after it suspends editor detesting newsroom partisanship: 'Hard left propaganda machine'
Media by HatetheSwamp     April 17, 2024 3:46 am (Rating: 0.0) Last comment by: HatetheSwamp (28 comments) [364 views]


I just voted in the Pennsylvania primary...mail-in
Government by HatetheSwamp     April 18, 2024 7:15 am (Rating: 0.0) Last comment by: HatetheSwamp (5 comments) [122 views]


History selectors, pages, etc.
He Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready to Call 2020.
By Curt Anderson
August 5, 2020 7:32 pm
Category: History

(5.0 from 1 vote)
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Most historians just study the past. But Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the future. He has successfully predicted election results for many years. He bases his predictions on his "13 Keys". Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.

1. Midterm gains by incumbent’s party False
2. Not contested in primaries True (Joe Walsh and Bill Weld challenged Trump in the primaries, but neither were a serious challenge)
3. Incumbency True
4. No Third Party challenge True (Again, no serious challenge)
5. Strong Short term economy False
6. Strong long term economy False (Economic growth, GDP, not as strong as previous past two presidential terms)
7. Major policy change True (Mostly through executive actions)
8. No social unrest False
9. No Scandal False (If the 13 Keys were weighted, this key alone would tip the scales. No past president has anything to compare to Trump's scandals lengthy list with includes a porn star, fraud convictions and impeachment)
10. No Foreign/military failure True
11. Foreign/military Success False
12. Charismatic incumbent False (Trump is a showman/con man who impresses/hoodwinks just a slice of the electorate)
13. Uncharismatic challenger True

There were more "False" responses than "True" so Allan Lichtman predicts...

Video behind paywall at New York Times link below.

It is not one of Lichtman's keys, but I would argue that there should be another key stating Handled domestic issues/ crises successfully. Most of the opprobrium heaped on Trump is his mishandling of COVID-19, Black Lives Matter protests, the protests in Charlottesville, his paper towel tossing response to the hurricane in Puerto Rico, etc.





Cited and related links:

  1. nytimes.com

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