Most historians just study the past. But Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the future. He has successfully predicted election results for many years. He bases his predictions on his "13 Keys". Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.
1. Midterm gains by incumbentís party False
2. Not contested in primaries True (Joe Walsh and Bill Weld challenged Trump in the primaries, but neither were a serious challenge)
3. Incumbency True
4. No Third Party challenge True (Again, no serious challenge)
5. Strong Short term economy False
6. Strong long term economy False (Economic growth, GDP, not as strong as previous past two presidential terms)
7. Major policy change True (Mostly through executive actions)
8. No social unrest False
9. No Scandal False (If the 13 Keys were weighted, this key alone would tip the scales. No past president has anything to compare to Trump's scandals lengthy list with includes a porn star, fraud convictions and impeachment)
10. No Foreign/military failure True
11. Foreign/military Success False
12. Charismatic incumbent False (Trump is a showman/con man who impresses/hoodwinks just a slice of the electorate)
13. Uncharismatic challenger True
There were more "False" responses than "True" so Allan Lichtman predicts...
Video behind paywall at New York Times link below.
It is not one of Lichtman's keys, but I would argue that there should be another key stating Handled domestic issues/ crises successfully. Most of the opprobrium heaped on Trump is his mishandling of COVID-19, Black Lives Matter protests, the protests in Charlottesville, his paper towel tossing response to the hurricane in Puerto Rico, etc.