News & comments posted organically
SelectSmart.com
Report spam & abuse

SelectSmart.com home page

He Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready to Call 2020.

By Curt Anderson
August 5, 2020 7:32 pm
Category: History
(5.0 from 1 vote)
SelectSmart.com    SelectSmart.com    SelectSmart.com

Share
The posted rules of the Post
Rate this article
(5=best, 0=poor)
5 Stars
4 Stars
3 Stars
2 Stars
1 Star
0 Stars

Most historians just study the past. But Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the future. He has successfully predicted election results for many years. He bases his predictions on his "13 Keys". Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.

1. Midterm gains by incumbentís party False
2. Not contested in primaries True (Joe Walsh and Bill Weld challenged Trump in the primaries, but neither were a serious challenge)
3. Incumbency True
4. No Third Party challenge True (Again, no serious challenge)
5. Strong Short term economy False
6. Strong long term economy False (Economic growth, GDP, not as strong as previous past two presidential terms)
7. Major policy change True (Mostly through executive actions)
8. No social unrest False
9. No Scandal False (If the 13 Keys were weighted, this key alone would tip the scales. No past president has anything to compare to Trump's scandals lengthy list with includes a porn star, fraud convictions and impeachment)
10. No Foreign/military failure True
11. Foreign/military Success False
12. Charismatic incumbent False (Trump is a showman/con man who impresses/hoodwinks just a slice of the electorate)
13. Uncharismatic challenger True

There were more "False" responses than "True" so Allan Lichtman predicts...

Video behind paywall at New York Times link below.

It is not one of Lichtman's keys, but I would argue that there should be another key stating Handled domestic issues/ crises successfully. Most of the opprobrium heaped on Trump is his mishandling of COVID-19, Black Lives Matter protests, the protests in Charlottesville, his paper towel tossing response to the hurricane in Puerto Rico, etc.





Cited and related links:

  1. nytimes.com
The views and claims expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views and beliefs of SelectSmart.com. Not every statement made here can be assumed to be a fact.
Comments:

Be the first to comment on this article.




Cookies Consent Policy & Privacy Statement. All Rights Reserved. SelectSmart® is a registered trademark. | Contact SelectSmart.com | Advertise on SelectSmart.com | This site is for sale!


From our contributors:
Display Order:
Biden takes a page from FDR's book; Trump took a page from Hitler's book.
by Curt Anderson     February 26, 2021 12:32 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [3570 views]


Four Years Ago In Trump History
by Curt Anderson     February 25, 2021 7:22 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [941 views]


Attack On Titan Season 4 Finale Title Surfaces Online
by Curt Anderson     February 24, 2021 2:48 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [2998 views]


How much of an advantage is home court in the NBA?
by Curt Anderson     February 17, 2021 9:22 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [7706 views]


In praise of gtnish7
by Curt Anderson     February 13, 2021 12:27 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by gtnish7 (1 comments) [4177 views]


The precarious balance in the US Senate should remind Democrats to make hay while the sun shines.
by Curt Anderson     January 27, 2021 5:39 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [19155 views]


Arguments why Trump shouldn't be impeached and tried a second time.
by Curt Anderson     January 22, 2021 7:14 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by Donna (1 comments) [5816 views]


Here's how we can avoid electing Donald Trumps in the future
by Curt Anderson     January 8, 2021 2:26 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [15637 views]


Discover The Meaning of Your Life
by numo777     January 6, 2021 6:52 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [3971 views]


A good explanation as to how COVID vaccines work.
by Curt Anderson     December 24, 2020 6:47 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [11855 views]


Whatever happened to Biden accuser Tara Reade?
by Curt Anderson     December 13, 2020 1:42 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [12945 views]


How Numerology Can Decode Your Future (2021)
by numerology2021     December 12, 2020 10:36 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [1387 views]


Would Bernie Sanders have defeated Trump?
by Curt Anderson     November 24, 2020 12:34 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [21674 views]


For comedic reasons I am glad the election was close.
by Curt Anderson     November 9, 2020 7:35 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [14690 views]


Yoga Teacher Training course in noida
by sohum     October 27, 2020 4:45 am (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [12493 views]


Did the Democrats dodge a bullet by nominating Joe Biden instead of Bernie Sanders?
by Curt Anderson     October 20, 2020 9:42 pm (Rating: 0.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [7836 views]


The problem with Amy Coney Barrett's judicial philosophy of Originalism
by Curt Anderson     October 12, 2020 10:56 pm (Rating: 2.5)
Last comment by (0 comments) [10390 views]


Newman! Seinfeld's nemesis urges you to vote early.
by Curt Anderson     October 9, 2020 2:50 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [3420 views]


Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination means less than you think.
by Curt Anderson     September 9, 2020 1:29 pm (Rating: 3.5)
Last comment by Curt Anderson (1 comments) [6973 views]


Don't let revisionists tell you that the Civil War wasn't about slavery.
by Curt Anderson     October 6, 2020 9:13 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [3421 views]


Trump's Supreme Court nomination may have just hurt his chances with the voters he needs.
by Curt Anderson     September 27, 2020 10:40 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [11183 views]


RBG's death has sparked an eyepopping flurry of contributions to Democrats.
by Curt Anderson     September 19, 2020 3:04 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [8087 views]


What was Bob Woodward's responsibility in reporting on what Trump said about COVID?
by Curt Anderson     September 14, 2020 7:32 pm (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [4950 views]


Who actually accomplished progressive change in America? A case for Joe Biden.
by Curt Anderson     September 6, 2020 11:25 am (Rating: 5.0)
Last comment by (0 comments) [3483 views]


Find old posts & articles

Recently rated items