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Merck - Business...a SelectSmart.com Flowchart
Business. Merck
By Brenan
Viewed 963 times since July 2013.


This SelectSmart.com Business. flowchart, a free online decision tool is a creation of Brenan and for amusement purposes only. The implicit and explicit opinions expressed here are the author's. SelectSmart.com does not necessarily agree.


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This is a decision tree for Merck's Capital Budgeting Analysis of licensing Davanrik.
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Save 30mm

NO
License the Drug Davanrik

Cost 30mm

YES

FDA Phase I
Invest 30mm

2 years



NO
YES
YES

Lose 30mm
p = 0.40

FDA Phase 2
p = 0.6

Invest 42.5mm

2 years

YES
Phase I successful

p = 0.60

YES
YES
YES

Treats Obesity Only

p = 0.15

Treat Both Depression And Obesity

p = 0.05

Treats Depression Only

p = 0.10

YES
YES
YES
Invest 100mm
PV 345mm

YES
Phase 3
Invest 150mm

p success
= 0.75

Phase 3
Invest 500mm

p success
= 0.7

Phase 3
Invest 200mm

p success
= 0.85

YES
Invest 250mm
PV 1200mm
YES
YES
YES

Weight Only

p = 0.05

Invest 100mm
PV 345mm

Treats both
Invest 400mm

PV 2250mm

Depression
Only

p = 0.15

Invest 250mm
PV 1200mm

Complete Failure

p = 0.1