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A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.

Posted by Dick 
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 24, 2015 11:24AM
Quote
Indy!
Read the test again, Curt...

"We’ve chosen a rule that some sequences of three numbers obey — and some do not. Your job is to guess what the rule is."

The cheekiness is in the question itself - we've "chosen" a rule. There are multiple rules that apply - but we're supposed to guess which one they've "chosen" out of the multitude. That's like holding up your hand and saying "I've 'chosen' one of my fingers - can you guess which one?" There is no correct answer because if someone guesses the correct one - you can simply say "that's not it." So "confirmation" means absolutely nothing in the "test".

If you name the rule correctly, how can they say "That's not it" when the answer is at the bottom of the puzzle?

You're just totally not getting this, dude.

The rule is "Any three numbers in ascending order." It's amazing that you never figured that out for yourself.
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 24, 2015 10:37PM
Quote
Ponderer
I tested my guess with a couple sequences and it told me they fit the rule. By starting with those specific numbers, they intentionally put a "wrong" idea into people's heads to intentionally throw people off. A wrong idea that they are then told is correct but is still wrong. No matter how many times they tested their guess at the rule, it would have told them it was correct. The quiz actually was tricky. The rule may not have been, but coming to the conclusion they wanted starting from where it did I think was, given the way they set this up. 

I think that it's not so much that people don't like being told "no" as much as it is that people don't generally consider that they may be wrong when their position is continuously confirmed as correct.

Did it never cross your mind to try to disconfirm your guess yourself? Remember, you could have entered any 3-number sequence you wanted as many times as you wanted to enter them. Of course you'll keep getting confirmed answers if you never enter a sequence that breaks the rule -- and that's the point of the article. That's exactly what some people do. They seldom or, worse, never seek out information that might disconfirm their beliefs.

In the puzzle, if you'd only entered a sequence like "2, 4, 6" or "1, 2, 3" or any of an infinite number of other sequences you would also have gotten a "Yes, that sequence obeys the rule" that would have eliminated the hypothesis "Double the previous number" from consideration.

Apparently, however, you never did that. You sought out only confirming instances for your belief (i.e., guess), not disconfirming ones.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/24/2015 10:39PM by Dick.
Dick - we GOT it (the first time). We're just not nearly as impressed as you are.

And again - how can I have NOT "figured it out" when (as you pointed out yourself) THEIR rule (out of the MANY that could apply) is right there at the bottom? For a guy who prides himself on being a logical thinker - how does the incredibly EASY stuff keep slipping past you? eye rolling smiley
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 25, 2015 12:02AM
So maybe you can clarify what you meant to say when you wrote, "There is no correct answer because if someone guesses the correct one - you can simply say 'that's not it.'"
There are multiple answers that would work as "rules", Dick. Obviously the test creators lead one to believe the answer is the doubling rule - so everyone guess that.

I can create a similar test and I guarantee no matter your answer - it will not be "correct" (even if it conforms to the all the test requirements as the 'doubling rule' correctly applied to the one you posted).
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 26, 2015 12:57AM
So what was the first sequence of numbers you entered to test your guess?
Let's put your logic to the test - I can't remember my numbers but they fit the... ahem... "rule" (using the term lightly)...why?

Should be laughably easy for you to tell us why. Here's the distressing part for you, Dick - I honestly am not sure you're going to answer correctly.
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 26, 2015 05:03PM
I'll stop pestering you with this because it's pretty obvious that you have no clue what's going on here. But that's OK. In the study from which this test is derived, there was one person there, too, out of the 29 who participated, who couldn't figure out what was going on with that test, either, so it does happen. Just like you, he probably couldn't remember the sequence of numbers he entered, either. So don't feel bad. It's no big deal.
That's two times in two posts you wimped out. Everyone took your silly "confirmation" test - but whenever you're called on something? You wimp every... single... time. Like the IQ test you bailed on. You're name shouldn't be "Dick" - it should be "Wimpy"...

"I'll gladly take your test on Tuesday, Indy... for a pass on it today." smoking smiley
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 27, 2015 12:33AM
Right. You couldn't remember the 3 numbers you say eye rolling smiley that you entered to test your guess and I wimped out!?

Right. That is completely believable. Really, it is. Completely.

BTW, where do you get this "we" business? Got a mouse in your pocket? This is only about you, little buddy. I have little doubt that everyone else made a good faith effort at taking the test and understood the principle being discussed. I can't say that about you.

I'm pretty sure that everyone else can remember the first set of numbers they entered to test their guess. Only you seem to suffer from below-average cognitive recall.
Wimpy... it's very simple. Take my answer and extrapolate it out to the logical conclusion.

It's funny how the "logic" guy can state "rules", guidelines and postulates until the sun goes down - but whenever he's actually called upon to put logic to use (or just simple math)?

EPIC FAIL. smoking smiley
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 27, 2015 02:49AM
So do you seriously not remember the simple 3-number sequence that you entered to test your first guess or are you just being Indy?
Why would I remember it? Not like it's the combination to my gym locker. I do know the numbers conformed to the (arbitrary) "rule" the testers pulled out of their anus. Common sense tells you that.
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 27, 2015 05:53AM
If you'd put the least bit of thought into it, how could you not remember those 3 simple numbers! Presumably you didn't just enter a random string of numbers. I mean, there must have been some sort of logical thought process that led you to enter the three numbers that you did. But if you say that you can't remember that thought process now or the 3 simple numbers, I believe you.
Well if I decide to say those words you just pulled out of your ass - you'll be the first to know.

In the meantime, let's try to stay in reality. You have all the info available. You claim to be a logical thinker. If you can't figure this one out by yourself? You will forever be "Wimpy" in my book. And I have to say, Wimpy - this one is LAUGHABLY easy. If I were you - I'd figure it out before Indy gets tired of carrying you and embarrasses your ass by posting the answer.
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 27, 2015 11:24AM
But I don't have all the information to continue to discuss this with you. I need to know which 3 numbers you entered to test your guess. I'm not asking you to prove Goldbach's Conjecture here. I'm asking only for the 3 numbers you entered to test your guess.

Tell you what, scratch that. Just give me any three numbers that you believe would test your original guess. It doesn't matter if they were the actual three numbers you first entered. Can you manage that?
Can you? I've given you my "answer" 3 times in this thread - once on each page. But you don't even need my answer. All you have to do is look at the test again and OBVIOUSLY my answer (whatever the numbers - I honestly don't recall) - will fit the (arbitrary) "rule" the creators claim is the winner.

Dick... this is a NO BRAINER.
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 27, 2015 05:25PM
Part 1

OK, this is all a bit beyond Indy, who I seriously doubt entered any numbers at all into the game because he failed to understand what was being asked of him. But had he been able to grasp the concepts involved, the odds are good that he would have entered some sequence of numbers like "1,2,4" or perhaps "4,8,16" to test the hypothesis "The rule is to double the numeric value of each succeding number in the sequence.

As it happens, all such sequences obey the rule.
Jesus. Like pulling freakin' teeth. You just saved yourself from the ultimate humiliation, my Dallas Mavericks-loving friend.
Probably in many situations peoples' tendency for confirmation bias doesn't matter. But imagine a doctor. That doctor could look at a patient's symptoms and notice that they matched exactly the disease the doctor suspected before diagnosis. But a lot of diseases have the same or very similar symptoms, and a misdiagnosis could prove fatal.
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