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# A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.

Posted by Dick
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 27, 2015 11:48PM Registered: 11 years ago Posts: 59,961
That's why you don't let them take you to the hospital unless you're already dying.
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 28, 2015 04:56AM Moderator Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 7,520
Quote
Dick
Part 1

OK, this is all a bit beyond Indy, who I seriously doubt entered any numbers at all into the game because he failed to understand what was being asked of him. But had he been able to grasp the concepts involved, the odds are good that he would have entered some sequence of numbers like "1,2,4" or perhaps "4,8,16" to test the hypothesis "The rule is to double the numeric value of each succeding number in the sequence.

As it happens, all such sequences obey the rule.

Part 2

Only trouble is the correct rule is NOT "Double the numeric value of each succeeding number in the sequence." This was a false belief that results from confirmation bias.
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 28, 2015 05:14AM Registered: 11 years ago Posts: 59,961
Right. The tip-off on that was when they said "The rule was simply: Each number must be larger than the one before it."

I'm still proud of you for figuring out the doubling thing though.
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 28, 2015 05:44AM Moderator Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 7,520
Right. But when you entered "The rule is to double the numeric value of each succeeding number in the sequence" for the rule, you were mistaken because of confirmation bias.
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 28, 2015 05:56AM Registered: 11 years ago Posts: 59,961
And?
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 28, 2015 11:18AM Moderator Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 7,520
You might consider testing your beliefs, the important ones anyway, by occasionally trying to disconfirm them rather than seeking only to confirm them. To do so improves your odds of believing things that are true.
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 28, 2015 03:14PM Registered: 11 years ago Posts: 59,961
Dick - you have no idea how I go about confirming or not confirming things and that test tells you nothing about me in that regard. What's happening is YOUR confirmation bias is leading YOU to believe something about me based on insufficient evidence.
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 28, 2015 05:47PM Moderator Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 7,520
You don't know what cofirmation bias is. And that's OK. You're not interested in this kind of thing. No problem.
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 28, 2015 11:52PM Registered: 11 years ago Posts: 59,961
Now you're catching on.
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 28, 2015 11:58PM Moderator Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 7,520
No, I'm not "catching on." I've known that about you since virtually the first day you were here. You're symptomatic of what's mostly wrong with the country.
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 29, 2015 09:23AM Registered: 11 years ago Posts: 59,961
 Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong. July 29, 2015 06:25PM Moderator Registered: 7 years ago Posts: 7,520