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A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.

Posted by Dick 
A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 04, 2015 06:58PM
[www.nytimes.com]

This is enlightening. It's knowing information like this that makes us all better, more rational thinkers.
Dick, no offense - but again - I think most (if not all) of us already understand these principles and abide by them. If you don't believe that, I would suggest you first discount all the UFO stuff you have read on this board and instead concentrate on the tangible issues we have discussed instead.

In order not to spoil it for everyone, I will not discuss the "puzzle" at the top - but I think we can both see they were being juuuuuust a bit cheeky with that as well.
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 04, 2015 09:49PM
I don't see the 'cheekiness' and there's nothing really to give away with the puzzle if those who work it out do so honestly. It's not a test. It's intended to illustrate the human tendency toward confirmation bias.
We all, or virtually all, seek facts and information that confirm our preexisting biases and not so much facts and information that throw doubt on them.
Well - again Dick - I think we all understand that. Why you seem to believe we don't is beyond me. You are the same - we all have SOME biases and we all like to have those biases confirmed because it makes us feel warm and fuzzy. That seems pretty obvious in regards to human nature - not some big mystery as you seem to believe. The example for you would be Lebron James - you think he's the greatest thing since sliced bread. Me? I've seen him up close and personal and understand (although still a "great" player) he has a LOT of flaws. As your site claims - you don't like hearing that - you just want confirmation he's the GOAT because that's your preconceived bias. smoking smiley

And again - I'll give everyone else a chance to enjoy the puzzle and then maybe we'll discuss it. I'm not a spoiler, dude.
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 07, 2015 11:36AM
That's a very good example, Indy. Thanks. It indeed could be the case that one of us is guilty of confirmation bias in our evaluation of LeBron James. If you want, we can examine the case a bit closer and perhaps find out.

For my part, yes, I do think LeBron is the best player in the game today and easily one of the ten best all-time to play the game.

You don't, but exactly how good do you believe LeBron is? Do you acknowledge that he's the best in this era of basketball? Do you believe that he belongs on the list of all-time top-ten players?

Let's get this ball rollin'!
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 07, 2015 03:48PM
I think this quiz was set up in order to make people come to a certain conclusion. A conclusion that is correct and in fact does follow the rule... yet is wrong. A conclusion that, contrary to what the quiz went on to say, was not "tricky". A conclusion that was obvious and actually correct no matter how many times you test it. I get what the quiz is trying to show us, but I don't think it was set up honestly. I tested my guess with a couple sequences and it told me they fit the rule. By starting with those specific numbers, they intentionally put a "wrong" idea into people's heads to intentionally throw people off. A wrong idea that they are then told is correct but is still wrong. No matter how many times they tested their guess at the rule, it would have told them it was correct. The quiz actually was tricky. The rule may not have been, but coming to the conclusion they wanted starting from where it did I think was, given the way they set this up.

I think that it's not so much that people don't like being told "no" as much as it is that people don't generally consider that they may be wrong when their position is continuously confirmed as correct.

.




Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/07/2015 04:27PM by Ponderer.
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 07, 2015 04:29PM
The quiz was not set up for you to figure out what the rule was, but to get you to be wrong with your first guess.

.
Quote
Ponderer
I think this quiz was set up in order to make people come to a certain conclusion.

Yes - they were being cheeky. And if Dick still doesn't think they were - I would ask a simple question... If they weren't playing a little game there - why did they bother to change the numbers from the original version of the test?

Hello. smoking smiley
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 07, 2015 10:07PM
So you've decided to decline my challenge, Indy?

That's probably for the best.
What challenge? Are you imagining things again?
Well Dick - the first step would be to show me where I said he wasn't the best player in the game today or one of the top ten ever.

Although I would point out Jordan, Russell, Magic, Kobe, Shaq, Kareem, Bird, Duncan, Wilt and Hakeem might have something to say about that.
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 08, 2015 07:41AM
Jeez, calm down. Such anger.

You are the one who actually brought up LeBron in the context of confirmation bias, not me. I only agreed with you that indeed one of us might be guilty of that phenomenon in our evaluation of LeBron . . . but now since you seem to agree with my evaluation (i.e., as his being the best BB player of this era, etc.) you can't really claim that I'm guilty of confirmation bias with respect to my evaluation of him unless you also indict yourself since you now believe the same thing.
Ummm... whatever. Not even sure what you're saying there beyond projecting your anger on me. I do see you've changed your assessment of Lebron from "one of the top ten ever" to now being only "the best player of this era". Something Vince Carter or Alan Iverson might have said about themselves before Lebron entered the NBA. So I'm glad you've reigned in your unbridled love affair with LBJ at least somewhat...
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 08, 2015 10:14PM
Since you tend to misunderstand much of what you read, I'll point out to you that I originally said that LeBron was the best player of this era and that he was easily one of the top ten all-time. My opinion hasn't wavered.

You OTOH, as you do on so many other things, say one thing one day and another thing the next.
Either that or you misinterpret what I say from one day to the next... one or the other.

Now where did you see the Deandre Jordan info? I'm interested.
Re: A short game sheds light on government policy, corporate America and why no one likes to be wrong.
July 09, 2015 02:53AM
So maybe you could just, like, say what you think about LeBron as a basketball player? For instance do you agree or disagree that he is the best of this era? Do you agree or disagree that it's a no-brainer that he easily ranks among the top ten players to ever play the game?
Stat-wise he is either 1 or 2 of this era (Kobe being the other). Top ten all time? The jury is still out on that one imho. There are certainly MANY players who have won more championships - even active players. I don't think it's fair to put Lebron in with the "top ten" all time greats until his career is over and we see what he has done in it's totality. Basketball is a game where it is easy to be "The Man" and put up a lot of stats because there are only 5 guys on a team. I know you don't want to hear it, but I've seen Lebron up close and understand that even though he scores a lot and has all the skills you could ask for - there are also negatives that offset that to some degree. I will say - for me at least - Lebron will never surpass Jordan or Russell as the GOAT. I don't care what he does from now on. For those two guys winning was everything - Lebron probably thinks that's important, but imho he's more concerned with the Lebron brand and "being great". I think when all is said and done, a lot of Lebron fans might look back and wonder how "the greatest" player could have lost the critical game 4 at home in this past Final series. Or how he could have only scored 8 points in game 4 of the 2011 Finals against Dallas - a game the Heat only lost by 3. And how did JJ Barrea - an unknown, undersized bench player basically neutralize him in that series? These are the kind of questions that - right now, while he's still playing - nobody is asking about Lebron.
Quote
Dick
I don't see the 'cheekiness' and there's nothing really to give away puzzle if those who work it out do so honestly. It's not a test. It's intended to illustrate the human tendency toward confirmation bias.
We all, or virtually all, seek facts and information that confirm our preexisting biases and not so much facts and information that throw doubt on them.

See, I told you guys Climate Change wasn't real!

I did what most people do. I doubled the next number(s). My brother-in-law did that but he also tested for a DECLINING sequence that had numbers half the previous one, so he at least looked for a "no". BTW, that pattern was just like one of the first and easiest patterns that I had on an SAT test I took decades ago. I suspect a lot of people recognized that. The test wasn't cheeky or trying to pull a fast one. It makes a good point. BTW, my website's selectors provide people with confirmation of their biases---people love to get reinforced.

I have no doubt that we look for articles to support our opinions, thus confirming our biases. I do however look for sites that are generally seen as objective to make a point. Sometimes I will find a conservative site supporting a liberal view or vice versa.
Read the test again, Curt...

"We’ve chosen a rule that some sequences of three numbers obey — and some do not. Your job is to guess what the rule is."

The cheekiness is in the question itself - we've "chosen" a rule. There are multiple rules that apply - but we're supposed to guess which one they've "chosen" out of the multitude. That's like holding up your hand and saying "I've 'chosen' one of my fingers - can you guess which one?" There is no correct answer because if someone guesses the correct one - you can simply say "that's not it." So "confirmation" means absolutely nothing in the "test". And again - the NYT (your favorite pub) couldn't even run the test as it was originally created - they had to use the doubling numbers for exactly the reason you suggested yourself - because it's going to be familiar to people.
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