What Nate Silver says about Rasmussen polls

Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.

Rasmussen’s polls — after a poor debut in 2000 in which they picked the wrong winner in 7 key states in that year’s Presidential race — nevertheless had performed quite strongly in in 2004 and 2006. And they were about average in 2008. But their polls were poor this year [2010].

More: [fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com]

What Fordham University says about the SPEW Presidential Poll in 08: It was the most ac..., well, you know.

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"...this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal; this was the moment when we ended a war and secured our nation and restored our image as the last, best hope on Earth." -- the ONE, Billy Joe McAllister Day 2008

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The fact Republicans always quote Rasmussen without fail tells you everything. Of course the wingdings like Foghorn here also believe Fox is the "fair and balanced" news source too so...

Rasmussen is an odd one, certainly. They seem generally biased to the Republicans, but when the Democrats are doing well they grudgingly publish polls in line with others, so they can maintain a veneer of credibility.

I believe Nate Silver once considered formally classing them as a Republican pollster, and putting 'R' in brackets after their polls.



Modern Britain summed up